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[1]江新,胡文佳,袁轩,等.地铁隧道施工安全风险演化的BP-SD模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(12):67-72.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.010]
　JIANG Xin,HU Wenjia,YUAN Xuan,et al.Research on BP-SD model for evolution of construction safety risk of subway tunnel[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(12):67-72.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.010]
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地铁隧道施工安全风险演化的BP-SD模型研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年12期
页码:
67-72
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on BP-SD model for evolution of construction safety risk of subway tunnel
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-12-0067-06
作者:
江新1; 2; 胡文佳1; 2; 袁轩1; 2; 孙正熙3; 郑霞忠1; 2
（1.三峡大学 湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室，湖北 宜昌 443002； 2.三峡大学 水利与环境学院，湖北 宜昌 443002；3.广东省水文局茂名水文分局，广东 茂名 525000)
Author(s):
JIANG Xin1; 2;  HU Wenjia1; 2;  YUAN Xuan1; 2;  SUN Zhengxi3;  ZHENG Xiazhong1; 2
(1. Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China; 2. College of Hydraulic & Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China; 3. Guangdong Province Hydrographic Bureau Maoming Hydrology Branch, Maoming Guangdong 525000, China)
关键词:
地铁隧道; 施工安全; 风险演化; BP-SD模型; 仿真
Keywords:
subway tunnel;  construction safety;  risk evolution;  BP-SD model;  simulation
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.010
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为深入研究地铁隧道施工风险的动态演化过程，结合系统动力学(SD)、误差反向传播(BP)神经网络与平均影响值（MIV）算法，确定模型中影响因素间的因果关系和影响函数，构建地铁隧道施工风险演化的BP-SD模型。模型仿真结果表明：安全管理风险系统与施工人员风险系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最大，施工环境系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响次之，机械设备系统的值的变化对地铁隧道施工风险值影响最小。因此，可通过降低安全管理风险值与施工人员风险值控制地铁隧道施工风险发生的概率。
Abstract:
In order to deeply study the dynamic evolution process of construction risk of subway tunnel, a BP-SD model for construction risk evolution of subway tunnel was constructed and the causal relationship and influencing functions of the influence factors in the model were determined by combining with the system dynamics (SD), error back propagation (BP) neural network and mean influence value (MIV) algorithm. The simulation results of the model showed that the change of safety management risk system value and construction personnel risk system value had the greatest impact on the construction risk value of subway tunnel, while the impact by the change of construction environment system value took the second place, and the change of the mechanical equipment system value had the least impact. Therefore, the occurrence probability of construction risk of subway tunnel can be controlled through reducing the safety management risk value and the construction personnel risk value.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2016382/KY)；国家自然科学基金项目(51379110);水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室（三峡大学）开放基金项目(2016KSD20)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-01-29