|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]衣健民,田宏.多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(10):181-186.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.030]
 YI Jianmin,TIAN Hong.Vulnerability analysis on chemical storage tank area under domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(10):181-186.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.030]
点击复制

多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析
分享到:

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年10期
页码:
181-186
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-10-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Vulnerability analysis on chemical storage tank area under domino effect
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-10-0181-06
作者:
衣健民田宏
(沈阳航空航天大学 安全工程学院,辽宁 沈阳 110136)
Author(s):
YI Jianmin TIAN Hong
(School of Safety Engineering, Shenyang Aerospace University, Shenyang Liaoning 110136, China)
关键词:
多米诺效应储罐区整体脆弱性单元脆弱性
Keywords:
domino effect storage tank area overall vulnerability unit vulnerability
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.030
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为有效地减少和控制事故的多米诺效应,对影响事故扩展的关键装置,即脆弱单元的辨识及其有效控制措施进行了研究。根据具体的设计方案,依次选定不同储罐作为初始事故单元,借助ALOHA软件计算各储罐之间热辐射及冲击波相互作用强度的大小,与损伤阈值进行比较,并考虑设备间的协同作用,从而确定可能发生的多米诺事故;运用Probit模型计算事故扩展概率,根据计算结果通过Bayes Server软件建立贝叶斯网络,利用先验概率来进行整体脆弱性分析,从而确定各个方案的安全性;对优选的方案通过后验概率进行单元脆弱性分析,从而确定脆弱单元;在此基础上提出相应的控制措施。通过实例计算验证了该方法的可行性,结果表明,该方法能够在多米诺效应的预防和控制方面有效发挥作用。
Abstract:
In order to reduce and control the domino effect of accident effectively, the identification and effective control measures of key installations influencing the accident expanding, namely the vulnerability units, were studied. Different storage tanks were selected in turn as the initial accident unit based on the specific design schemes, and the interaction intensities of thermal radiation and shock wave among different tanks were calculated by using ALOHA software and compared with the damage threshold, then the possible domino accidents were determined considering the synergistic effect among the equipments. The accident expanding probability was calculated by using the Probit model, and the Bayesian network was established by using the Bayes Server software according to the calculation results, then the prior probability was used to carry out the overall vulnerability analysis, so as to determine the safety of each scheme. The unit vulnerability analysis was carried out on the optimized scheme through the posterior probability, thus the vulnerability units were determined. On this basis, the corresponding control measures were put forward. The feasibility of this method was verified through the case calculation, and the results showed that the method can play an effective role on the prevention and control of domino effect.

参考文献/References:

[1]杨一楠, 张青松, 纪欢乐. 油库池火灾多米诺效应风险管理研究[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2013, 9(2):84-88. YANG Yinan, ZHANG Qingsong, JI Huanle. Study on risk management of domino effect by pool fire of fuel tank district [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2013, 9(2):84-88.
[2]赵东风, 王晓媛. 油库火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应定量评价[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2008, 18(6):104-109. ZHAO Dongfeng, WANG Xiaoyuan. Quantitative assessment of fire& explosion accident of oil storage caused by domino effect [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2013, 9(2):84-88.
[3]马海清. 大型油罐区蒸气云爆炸事故多米诺效应研究[J]. 武警学院学报, 2013, 29(12):54-57. MA Haiqing. A study on a domino effect of vapor cloud explosions in a large petroleum storage tank district [J]. Journal of Chinese People’s Armed Police Force Academy, 2013, 29(12):54-57.
[4]张永强, 刘茂, 张董莉. 多米诺效应定量风险分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2008, 8(1):145-149. ZHANG Yongqiang, LIU Mao, ZHANG Dongli. On the quantitative assessment of risk by domino effect [J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2008, 8(1):145-149.
[5]周成. 化工储罐区事故多米诺效应概率分析[J]. 石油化工设备, 2010, 39(3):31-35. ZHOU Cheng. Analysis of the probabilistic evaluation of domino effect in chemical storage area [J]. Petro-chemical Equipment, 2010, 39(3):31-35.
[6]李建军. 多米诺效应定量风险评估研究评述[J]. 中国公共安全(学术版), 2015(1):40-44. LI Jianjun. Reviews on the quantitative risk assessment of domino effect [J]. China Public Security ( Academy Edition), 2015(1):40-44.
[7]COZZANI V, TUGNOLI A, SALZANO E. The development of an inherent safety approach to the prevention of domino accidents[J]. Accident; Analysis and Prevention, 2009, 41(6): 1216-1227.
[8]贾梅生, 陈国华, 胡昆. 化工园区多米诺事故风险评价与防控技术综述[J]. 化工进展, 2017, 36(4):1534-1543. JIA Meisheng, CHEN Guohua, HU Kun. Review of risk assessment and pre-control of domino effect in chemical industry park [J]. Chemical Industry and Engineering Progress, 2017, 36(4):1534-1543.
[9]张青松, 杨一楠, 郑薇. 基于贝叶斯概率的油库池火灾多米诺效应分析[J]. 安全与环境学报, 2013, 13(3):239-242. ZHANG Qingsong, YANG Yinan, ZHENG Wei. Analysis on pool fire domino effect in fuel tank district based on Bayes probability [J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2013, 13(3):239-242.
[10]孙康, 周武, 柴瑞瑞. 化工园区危险化学品事故多米诺效应的网络演化模型[J]. 电子科技大学学报:社会科学版, 2015, 17(5):37-41. SUN Kang, ZHOU Wu, CHAI Ruirui. Network evolution model of hazardous chemical accident with domino effect in chemical industry park [J]. Journal of UESTC (Social Sciences Edition) , 2015, 17(5):37-41.
[11]KHAKZAD N, RENIERS G. Using graph theory to analyze the vulnerability of process plants in the context of cascading effects[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2015, 143(SI): 63-73.
[12]李鹤, 张平宇, 程叶青. 脆弱性的概念及其评价方法[J]. 地理科学进展, 2008, 27(2):18-25. LI He, ZHANG Pingyu, CHENG Yeqing. Concepts and assessment methods of vulnerability [J]. Progress in Geography, 2008, 27(2):18-25.
[13]KHAKZAD N, RENIERS G, ABBASSI R, et al. Vulnerability analysis of process plants subject to domino effects[J]. Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2016, 154: 127-136.
[14]COZZANI V, GUBINELLI G, ANTONIONI G, et al. The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials, 2005, 127(1/3): 14-30.
[15]Reniers G, Cozzani V. Domino effects in the process industries: modeling, prevention and managing [M]. Oxford (UK): ELSEVIER, 2013.
[16]刘培,宋文华,张炳锋,等. 多米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究[J]. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2015, 11(11):131-136. LIU Pei, SONG Wenhua, ZHANG Bingfeng, et al. Study on consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in domino effect [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2015, 11(11):131-136.
[17]邢志祥,王云慧,杨扣华, 等. 化学流程工业多米诺效应风险评估的研究进展[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2014, 24(10):144-150. XING Zhixiang,WANG Yunhui,YANG Kouhua, et al. Review of progress in research on evaluation of domino effect risk in chemical process industry[J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2014, 24(10):144-150.
[18]KHAKZAD N, KHAN F, AMYOTTE P, et al. Domino effect analysis using Bayesian networks[J]. Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis, 2013, 33(2): 292-306.

相似文献/References:

[1]于清华.多米诺效应阈值研究进展[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):212.
 YU Qing-hua.Research progress on domino effect threshold[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(10):212.
[2]李求进,杨玉胜,陶红,等.基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(1):71.
 LI Qiu-jin,YANG Yu-sheng,TAO Hong.Study on quantitative risk assessment method based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(10):71.
[3]杨一楠,张青松,纪欢乐.油库池火灾多米诺效应风险管理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):84.
 YANG Yi nan,ZHANG Qing song,JI Huan le.Study on risk management of domino effect by pool fire of fuel tank district[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(10):84.
[4]高进东.化工储罐区池火灾多米诺效应风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(7):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.009]
 GAO Jin dong.Risk assessment on domino effect caused by pool fire in chemical tanks[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(10):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.009]
[5]黄亮亮,姚安林,魏沁汝,等.基于RBI与多米诺效应的输气站场设备定量风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.015]
 HUANG Liangliang,YAO Anlin,WEI Qingru,et al.Quantitative risk assessment of facilities in gas transmission station based on RBI and domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(10):90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.015]
[6]魏沁汝,姚安林.基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):168.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.029]
 WEI Qin-ru,YAO An-lin.Analysis on consequences of major accidents in oil pipeline based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(10):168.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.029]
[7]陈国华,安霆,陈培珠.危险化学品事故多米诺效应历史数据研究评述[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(4):64.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.010]
 CHEN Guo-hua,AN Ting,CHEN Pei-zhu.Review on historical analysis of domino effect in chemical accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(10):64.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.010]
[8]刘培,宋文华,张炳锋,等.米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(11):131.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
 LIU Pei,SONG Wen-hua,ZHANG Bing-feng,et al.Study on consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(10):131.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
[9]昌伟伟,吴兵.博弈论在预防化工园区事故多米诺效应中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(12):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.025]
 CHANG Weiwei,WU Bing.Application of game theory in preventing domino effect of accidents in chemical industry park[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(10):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.12.025]
[10]蒋代,华敏,潘旭海.危化品储罐区多灾种耦合效应风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(9):144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.09.023]
 JIANG Dai,HUA Min,PAN Xuhai.Risk analysis on multidisaster coupling effect in storage tank area of dangerous chemicals[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(10):144.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.09.023]
[11]冯显富,王艳,张科宇,等.火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应耦合模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(3):51.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.09]
 FENG Xian fu,WANG Yan,ZHANG Ke yu,et al.Study on coupled model of domino effect in fire and explosion accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(10):51.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.09]
[12]王海龙,包其富,李学盛,等.基于多米诺效应的油品储罐区个人风险研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(5):55.
 WANG Hai long,BAO Qi fu,LI Xue sheng,et al.Research on individual risk of tank area based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2009,5(10):55.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
-
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-11-03