|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]晋良海,吴菊华,余迪,等.水电厂电力设备事故应急响应FPN-MC模型及效能分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(4):123-128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.04.020]
 JIN Lianghai,WU Juhua,YU Di,et al.FPN-MC model on emergency response of electrical equipment accident in hydro-power plant and its performance analysis[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(4):123-128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.04.020]
点击复制

水电厂电力设备事故应急响应FPN-MC模型及效能分析
分享到:

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
13
期数:
2017年4期
页码:
123-128
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2017-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
FPN-MC model on emergency response of electrical equipment accident in hydro-power plant and its performance analysis
文章编号:
1673-193X(2017)-04-0123-06
作者:
晋良海12吴菊华12余迪3陈雁高4
1. 三峡大学 湖北省水电工程施工与管理重点实验室,湖北 宜昌 443002;2. 三峡大学 水利与环境学院,湖北 宜昌 443002;3. 上海勘测设计研究院有限公司,上海 200080;4. 中国水利水电第七工程局有限公司,四川 成都 610081
Author(s):
JIN Lianghai12 WU Juhua12 YU Di3 CHEN Yangao4
1. Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Hydropower Project Construction and Management, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China;2. College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang Hubei 443002, China;3. Shanghai Investigation, Design & Research Institute Co., Ltd., Shanghai 200080, China;4. Sinohydro Bureau 7 Company Limited, Chengdu Sichuan 610081, China
关键词:
水电厂电力设备应急响应模糊Petri网马尔科夫链效能分析
Keywords:
electrical equipment of hydropower plant emergency response fuzzy Petri net Markov chain performance analysis
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.04.020
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为更好地利用信息技术研究水电厂电力设备事故应急效能,提高应急救援效率和应急处置能力,综合考虑应急响应过程中各个环节时间的随机性与模糊性,运用模糊Petri网(FPN)和马尔科夫链(MC)理论,构建水电厂电力设备事故应急响应FPN-MC模型,求解模糊稳态概率值并分析系统效能指标。最后,以ZLB水电厂电力设备事故Ⅲ级应急响应作为实例,进一步剖析应急流程信息拥挤的瓶颈环节及事件应急处置的关键节点。结果表明:应急资源使用完毕、相关人员现场处置到位、确定完善的处置方案时的状态最为繁忙;利用资源实施救援、相关人员进行现场处置、完善处置方案等实施过程需要重点监督和管理。
Abstract:
In order to make better use of information technology to study the emergency performance of electrical equipment accident in hydropower plant, and improve the emergency rescue efficiency and emergency disposal capacity, comprehensively considering the randomness and fuzziness of each link time in emergency response process, a FPN-MC model on emergency response of electrical equipment accident in hydropower plant was established by using the fuzzy Petri net (FPN) and Markov chain (MC) theory. The fuzzy steady probability was solved, and the indexes of system performance were analyzed. Finally, taking the level III emergency response of electrical equipment accident in ZLB hydropower plant as an example, the bottleneck links of emergency process informa-tion congestion and the key nodes of emergency disposal were further analyzed. The results showed that the states when the usage of emergency resource is finished, the on-site disposal of relevant personnel is in place, and the perfect disposal program is determined are the busiest. The implementation processes, such as implementing rescue by using the resource, conducting on-site disposal by the relevant personnel, and perfecting the disposal program etc., should be managed and supervised with emphasis.

参考文献/References:

[1]王才. 风险控制在水电厂安全管理中应用研究[D]. 北京:华北电力大学(北京), 2012.
[2]郭壁垒,李冰,常禹.基于状态评价的水电厂设备风险评估系统[J].计算机应用,2013,33(S2):105-107. GUO Bilei, LI Bing, CHANG Yu. Risk assessment system of hydropower plant based on condition evaluation [J]. Journal of Computer Application, 2013, 33(S2): 105-107.
[3]杨永俊.突发事件应急响应流程构建及预案评价[D].大连:大连理工大学,2009.
[4]WEISDORF D, APPERLEY J, COURMELON P, et al. Radiation emergencies: Evaluation, management, and transplantation[J]. Biology of Blood and Marrow Transplantation, 2007, 13(1): 103-106.
[5]黄炎焱. 面向突发灾害事件的应急效能评估方法[J]. 自然灾害学报, 2012,21(1):71-77. HUANG Yanyan. Abrupt disaster events oriented emergency response effectiveness evaluation method [J]. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2012, 21(1): 71-77.
[6]张英菊.基于灰色多层次评价方法的应急预案实施效果评价模型研究[J].计算机应用研究,2012,29(9):3312-3315, 3319. ZHANG Yingju. Research on implementation effect evaluation model of emergency plans based on multi-level and grey evaluation method [J]. Application Research of Computers, 2012, 29(9): 3312-3315,3319.
[7]吴天爱,吴云玉,谢忠全. 基于云模型的人防物资储备体系效能评估研究[J]. 计算机仿真, 2014, 31(6): 15-19. WU Tian'ai, WU Yunyu, XIE Zhongquan. Research on effectiveness evaluation of people's air defense material reserves system based on cloud model [J]. Computer Simulation, 2014, 31(6): 15-19.
[8]邓芳,刘吉夫. 高原地震协同应急方法研究——以玉树地震为例[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2012, 22(3): 170-176. DENG Fang, LIU Jifu. Modeling research on synergetic emergency response to plateau earthquake——case study into Yushu earthquake [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2012, 22(3): 170-176.
[9]徐振潇,徐书杰,刘小康. 基于帕累托最优理论的人民银行应急资源配置研究[J]. 金融理论与实践, 2013, 9(5): 73-76. XU Zhenxiao, XU Shujie, LIU Xiaokang. Study on the emergency resource allocation of the people's Bank Based on the Pareto optimal theory [J]. Financial Theory & Practice, 2013, 9(5): 73-76.
[10]黄道颖,温少鹏,李建勇,等. 一种基于模糊识别应急效果评估方法及其算法实现[J]. 统计与决策, 2009, 10(7): 142-143. HUANG Daoying, WEN Shaopeng, LI Jianyong, et al. An emergency evaluation method based on fuzzy recognition and its algorithm implementation [J]. Statistics & Decision, 2009, 10(7): 142-143.
[11]程翠云,钱新,杨珏,等. 溃坝应急预案有效性评价[J]. 岩土工程学报, 2008, 30(11): 1729-1733. CHENG Cuiyun, QIAN Xin, YANG Yu, et al. Effectiveness evaluation of emergency plans for dam break [J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2008, 30(11): 1729-1733.
[12]郑霞忠,余迪,陈述,等. 水电工程突发事件应急响应效能Petri网仿真模型[J]. 水利水运工程学报, 2016(1): 63-70. ZHENG Xiazhong, YU Di, CHEN Shu,et al. Capability simulation model for emergency response of hydropower projects based onPetri nets theory [J]. Hydro-Science and Engineering, 2016(1): 63-70.
[13]孙钦莹,李向阳.基于随机Petri网的跨组织应急协同模型构建[J].中国安全生产科学技术, 2015, 11(9): 63-69. SUN Qinying, LI Xiangyang. Establishment of emergency coordination model across organizations based on stochastic Petri net [J]. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2015, 11(9): 63-69.
[14]温廷新, 王冉, 杨红玉,等. 煤矿应急处置流程的SPN-MC模型及性能分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2016, 26(1):148-154. WEN Tingxin, WANG Ran, YANG Hongyu,et al. SPN-MC Model for coal mine emergency management and its simulation [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2016, 26(1): 148-154.
[15]牟海波,俞建宁,刘林忠. 基于模糊Petri 网的交通事故致因建模分析[J]. 中国安全科学学报, 2010, 20(12): 93-97. MU Haibo, YU Jianning, LIU Linzhong . Modeling and analyzing on road traffic accident causation based on Petri net [J]. China Safety Science Journal, 2010, 20(12): 93-97.

相似文献/References:

[1]刘铁民.突发事件应急响应规范化势在必行——“7.23”甬温线特大铁路交通事故应急响应反思[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):5.
 LIU Tie-min.Standardization of emergency response is imperative——reflection on the emergency response of the “7.23” Yongwen railway accident? Abstract [J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(4):5.
[2]刘铁民.应急准备任务设置与应急响应能力建设* 〖HT3SS〗——基于情景-任务-能力应急预案编制技术研究之二[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(10):5.
 LIU Tie min.Studies on setting of emergency preparedness tasks and building of emergency response capacity〖JP〗 ——Part II of emergency planning technology based on “SceneTaskAbility”[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(4):5.
[3]邢娟娟.突发职业危害事故应急响应关键技术[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(2):77.
 XING Juan-juan.Key techniques of emergency response for unexpected occupational hazard incident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(4):77.
[4]李峰,张超,张正辉.中国石油数字化应急预案系统研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(9):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.027]
 LI Feng,ZHANG Chao,ZHANG Zheng hui.Research on digital emergency plan system of CNPC[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(4):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.09.027]
[5]李湖生.美国企业应急预案及其对我国的启示[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):65.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.011]
 LI Hu-sheng.Emergency plans of business and industry in USA and their Enlightenment to China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(4):65.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.011]
[6]王铮,荣莉莉.应急响应逻辑流程构建及其应用研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.02.010]
 WANG Zheng,RONG Li-li.Research on establishing logical process of emergency response and its application[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(4):62.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.02.010]
[7]张小趁,陈红旗.突发地质灾害应急响应:避险模式研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(9):57.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.09.009]
 ZHANG Xiao-chen,CHEN Hong-qi.Study on refuge mode of emergency response in geological hazard[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(4):57.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.09.009]
[8]王娟,戴凤威,方博.煤矿事故应急响应的风险决策研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(6):21.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.06.003]
 WANG Juan,DAI Fengwei,FANG Bo.Research on risk decisionmaking of emergency response to coal mine accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(4):21.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.06.003]
[9]王军武,田梦圆,潘子瑶,等.地铁车站暴雨内涝应急响应投入策略研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(5):11.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.05.002]
 WANG Junwu,TIAN Mengyuan,PAN Ziyao,et al.Study on input strategy of emergency response to rainstorm and waterlogging in subway stations[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(4):11.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.05.002]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
湖北省重点实验室开放基金资助项目(2016KSD06,2016KSD13)
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-05-11