|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李宏浩,付建民,李成美,等.基于Monte Carlo与Markov法参数不确定性条件下SIL评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(9):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020]
 LI Honghao,FU Jianmin,LI Chengmei,et al.SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty based on Monte Carlo and Markov methods[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(9):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020]
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基于Monte Carlo与Markov法参数不确定性条件下SIL评估
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年9期
页码:
109-113
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty based on Monte Carlo and Markov methods
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-09-0109-05
作者:
李宏浩1付建民1李成美1熊涛2邵克拉2杨晓丽2
(1.中国石油大学(华东)海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心,山东 青岛 266580;2.新疆油田公司采气一厂,新疆 克拉玛依 834000)
Author(s):
LI Honghao1 FU Jianmin1 LI Chengmei1 XIONG Tao2 SHAO Kela2 YANG Xiaoli2
(1. Center for Offshore Equipment and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China;2. No.1 Gas Production Plant of Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Kelamayi Xinjiang 834000, China)
关键词:
安全仪表系统安全完整性等级Markov法Monte Carlo仿真不确定性Matlab GUI高完整性压力保护系统
Keywords:
safety instrumented system (SIS) safety integrity level Markov method Carlo Monte simulation uncertainty Matlab GUI high integrity pressure protection system
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了避免由参数不确定性因素导致较大的Markov法SIL评估偏差,且减少计算工作量和复杂性,采用Monte Carlo(MC)仿真方法处理含不确定性参数的Markov模型,并借助Matlab GUI编程开发MC仿真处理参数不确定性条件下Markov法SIL评估可视化仿真计算软件。在理论研究的基础上,为说明该研究方法与计算软件的可行性,以石油天然气工业高完整性压力保护系统(HIPPS)为算例进行SIL评估。结果表明:MC仿真方法可以有效处理Markov法SIL评估中参数不确定性问题;基于Matlab GUI编程设计出的仿真计算软件在一定程度上可以提高计算效率。
Abstract:
In order to avoid the larger deviation of SIL (safety integrity level) evaluation by Markov method caused by parameters uncertainty factor, and reduce the calculation workload and complexity, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method was used to process the Markov model with uncertainty parameters, and a visualization simulation calculation software of Markov method SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty processed by MC simulation was developed by using MATLAB GUI programming. On the basis of theoretical research, an high integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) in oil and gas industry was taken as example of SIL evaluation to illustrate the feasibility of the research method and calculation software. The results showed that the MC simulation method can effectively deal with the problem of parameters uncertainty in SIL evaluation by Markov method, and the simulation calculation software based on Matlab GUI programming design can improve the calculation efficiency to some extent.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
中国石油新疆油田分公司科技研发项目(CQYC-2016-156);青岛市民生科技计划重点支持项目(14-2-3-64-nsh)
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-12-08