|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]刘培,宋文华,张炳锋,等.米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(11):131-136.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
 LIU Pei,SONG Wen-hua,ZHANG Bing-feng,et al.Study on consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(11):131-136.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
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米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
11
期数:
2015年11期
页码:
131-136
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2015-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in domino effect
文章编号:
1673-193X(2015)-11-0131-06
作者:
刘培1宋文华1张炳锋2黄娜1程宝东2
1.天津工业大学 环境与化学工程学院,天津 300387;2.天津市龙安科技发展有限公司,天津 300381
Author(s):
LIU Pei1 SONG Wen-hua1 ZHANG Bing-feng2 HUANG Na1 CHENG Bao-dong2
1. School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Tianjin Polytechnic University, Tianjin 300387, China; 2. Tianjin Longan Science and Technology Development Corporation, Tianjin 300381, China
关键词:
多米诺效应多事故点协同作用概率模型后果分析模型事故预防
Keywords:
domino effect multiple accident points synergistic action probability model consequence analysis model accident prevention
分类号:
X932
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了研究多米诺效应中多事故点协同作用的后果,将并联系统概率模型运用到贝叶斯概率计算过程中,体现出多事故点协同作用对多米 诺效应传播的概率影响;后果分析部分从人、物、环境3个方面出发,对事故的后果影响以及事故预防提出建议措施。最后运用模型对实例进行 了应用分析,结果表明:多事故点协同作用下储罐的多米诺失效概率增大,罐区危险性增强,可以通过对储罐设置安全屏障等措施,有效的切 断导致事故最大概率的链条。
Abstract:
In order to study the consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in the domino effect, the parallel system probability model was applied into the calculation process of Bayesian probability, and the probability influence by synergistic action of multiple accident points to the spread of domino effect was reflected. In the consequence analysis part, the recommended measures of accident consequence influence and accident prevention were put forward from three aspects, including person, object and environment. At last, the model was applied in the application analysis of practical case. The results showed that under the synergistic action of multiple accident points, the domino failure probability of tank increased, and the risk of tank area increased also. The chain caused the largest probability of accident can be effectively cut off by setting up safety barriers and other measures to the storage tanks.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
天津市科技支撑计划重点项目(10ZCGYS 01600)
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-12-15