利用模糊综合评判评价某110kV变电所安全可靠性-《中国安全生产科学技术》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Evaluaty the safe reliability of a 110KV substation base on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

作者:: 王超群¹; 柴建设²; 王庆¹; 吕淑然¹; （1．首都经济贸易大学，北京〓100070)(2．环境保护部核与辐射安全中心，北京〓100082）

Author(s):: WANG Chao qun ¹; CHAI Jian she ²; WANG Qing ¹; LV Shu ran ¹; (1Capital University of Economics and Business, Beijing 100070, China)(2Nuclear and Radiation Safety Center,Beijing 100082, China)

Keywords:: substation; safe reliability; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method

摘要:: 为定量地综合评价某110kv变电所安全状况,结合目前变电所灾害事故的特点,根据影响变电所安全的因素,建立了包括环境、技术、人员、管理等因素，建立多级指标评价体系。采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)和模糊综合评价模型相结合的方法对变电所安全进行综合评价。首先是通过模糊层次分析法确定了各评价指标的权重；然后，理论联系实际,应用模糊综合评价方法对此变电所的安全现状进行综合分析,得出其安全状况为“良好”,同时也证明将模糊层次分析法应用于安全评价的可行性。模糊综合评判法简便和通用，不仅能指导生产实际，而且为类似的可靠性评价提供了一种新的思路和方法，同时也提高了变电所的安全管理水平。

Abstract:: For quantitatively and comprehensively assessing the safety of a 110kv substation, according to the main factors affecting substation safety, a multilevel assessment index system with firstlayer of four factors including environment technology, personnel and management and secondlayer of seventeen factors was established with consideration on the characteristics of substation accidents. A comprehensive safety evaluation model of substation was proposed through using the method of fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model The weight of each assessment element was determined by FAHP, which showed that the factors affecting the safety of substation were safety management, personnel, technology and environment in order. An illustration with the assessment result of “good” indicated that this method is feasible to assess the safety of substation.Exemplified calculation result showed that the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method model is simple, convenient and universal. It could not only guide practical production, but also provide a new way for optimizing similar reliability evaluation.