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[1]卢子涵,胡啸峰,邱凌峰.基于机器学习的侵财类案件危害程度分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(12):29-35.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.005]
　LU Zihan,HU Xiaofeng,QIU Lingfeng.Analysis on hazard degree of cases of encroaching on property based on machine learning[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(12):29-35.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.005]
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基于机器学习的侵财类案件危害程度分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年12期
页码:
29-35
栏目:
特邀专栏
出版日期:
2019-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on hazard degree of cases of encroaching on property based on machine learning
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-12-0029-07
作者:
卢子涵; 胡啸峰; 邱凌峰
( 1.中国人民公安大学 信息技术与网络安全学院，北京 102623;
2.安全防范技术与风险评估公安部重点实验室，北京 102623;
3.上海云从企业发展有限公司 中台产品中心-公共事业组，上海200120)
Author(s):
LU Zihan;  HU Xiaofeng;  QIU Lingfeng
(1.School of Information Technology and Cyber Security,People’s Public University of China,Beijing 102623,China;
2.Key Laboratory of Security Technology & Risk Assessment,Ministry of Public Security,Beijing 102623,China;
3.Middleend Product CenterPublic Utility Group,Shanghai Yunshang Technology,Shanghai 200120,China)
关键词:
侵财类案件; 机器学习; 分类预测
Keywords:
cases of encroaching on property;  machine learning;  classification prediction
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.12.005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了进一步分析侵财类案件的危害程度，以抢劫、抢夺和盗窃3种典型侵财类案件为例，利用ZS市2008—2014年的犯罪数据与统计年鉴数据，提取“发案时间”“发案地域”“选择时机”“选择处所”“选择对象”“人均地区生产总值”“职工月平均工资”7个特征，建立基于多种机器学习分类算法的侵财类案件危害程度预测模型，并进一步开展预测结果的分析研究。研究结果表明：梯度提升决策树（GBDT）算法性能最优，危害程度预测准确率达到了0.88；在抢劫案和抢夺案中，一般和重大的案件容易发生在繁华地带，特大案件容易发生在其他处所；侵财类案件倾向于在工作日的城区中发生，发生的危害程度大多为一般；提出的侵财类案件危害程度预测模型可为侵财类案件的风险评估及警务资源优化配置工作提供方法支持。
Abstract:
In order to further analyze the hazard degree of the cases of encroaching on property,taking three kinds of typical cases of encroaching on property including the robbery,forcible seizure and theft as the examples,based on the crime data and statistical yearbook data of ZS city from 2008 to 2014,multiple characteristics such as “time of case incidence”,“region of case incidence”,“time of choice”,“place of choice”,“object of choice”,“per capita GDP”,“average monthly salary of employees” were extracted,then a prediction model on the hazard degree of the cases of encroaching on property based on multiple machine learning classification algorithms,and the prediction results were further analyzed.The results showed that the gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) algorithm had the best performance,and the prediction accuracy of hazard degree reached 0.88.In the cases of robbery and forcible seizure,the general and major cases were prone to occur in the prosperous areas,and the extraordinary cases were likely to occur in other places.The cases of encroaching on property were more likely to occur in urban areas on the working days,and the hazard degrees were mostly general.The proposed prediction model on the hazard degree of the cases of encroaching on property can provide the methodological support for the risk assessment and optimal allocation of police resources on the cases of encroaching on property.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2019-11-02
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0809702）；国家自然科学基金项目（71704183）
作者简介： 卢子涵，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为机器学习。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-01-09