|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]骆正山,车朝阳.基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(9):95-99.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.09.015]
　LUO Zhengshan,CHE Zhaoyang.Research on failure probability and safe life of corroded oil and gas pipelines based on TVR[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(9):95-99.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.09.015]
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基于TVR的腐蚀油气管道失效概率及安全寿命研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年9期
页码:
95-99
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on failure probability and safe life of corroded oil and gas pipelines based on TVR
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-09-0095-05
作者:
骆正山; 车朝阳
（西安建筑科技大学 管理学院，陕西 西安 710055）
Author(s):
LUO Zhengshan;  CHE Zhaoyang
(School of Management, Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, Xi’an Shaanxi 710055, China)
关键词:
时变可靠性; 腐蚀; 油气管道; 失效概率; 安全寿命; 风险评估
Keywords:
timevarying reliability;  corrosion;  oil and gas pipeline;  failure probability;  safe life;  risk assessment
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.09.015
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为避免因腐蚀导致油气管道失效，针对因管道特性和腐蚀尺寸的不确定性使得管道剩余强度成为概率模型的特点，建立了腐蚀管道强度损失随机模型；借助可靠性理论，通过分析管道腐蚀进程的时变性特点，将管道系统由损伤积累和抗力衰减导致的剩余强度随机化；提出基于穿越率的腐蚀油气管道失效评定及安全寿命预测方法。研究结果表明：腐蚀速率和运行压力对管道失效概率及安全寿命影响显著,管道尺寸影响适中，而相关系数和拉伸强度影响较小；若腐蚀速率Va=0.2 mm/a，VL=10 mm/a或局部腐蚀缺陷半径达到管道壁厚的0.5倍时，建议作为重点风险段监测并检修。所建方法是对腐蚀油气管道运营监控和风险评估的有益补充。
Abstract:
In order to avoid the failure of oil and gas pipelines caused by the corrosion, aiming at the characteristic that the uncertainties in pipeline characteristics and corrosion size actuate the residual strength of pipeline to be a probabilistic model, a stochastic model on the strength loss of corroded pipeline was established. Based on the reliability theory, the residual strength of the pipeline system caused by the damage accumulation and resistance attenuation was randomized through analyzing the timevarying characteristics of the corrosion process of pipeline. The methods of failure assessment and safe life prediction for the corroded oil and gas pipeline based on the passage rate were proposed. The results showed that the corrosion rate and operating pressure had significant effect on the failure probability and safe life of pipeline, and the effect of pipeline size was moderate, while the effect of correlation coefficient and tensile strength were less. If the corrosion rate Va=0.2 mm/year, VL=10 mm/year or the radius of local corrosion defect reached 0.5d, it was recommended to monitor and repair as the key risk section. The method is a useful supplement to the operation monitoring and risk assessment of corroded oil and gas pipelines.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2018-04-19
基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目(41877527)
作者简介： 骆正山，博士，教授，主要研究方向为油气管道风险。
通信作者： 车朝阳，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为油气管道安全管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-10-09