|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]张鹏,秦国晋,王艺环.城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(8):181-183.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.030]
　ZHANG Peng,QIN Guojin,WANG Yihuan.Study on acceptable criteria for life loss risk of urban gas accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(8):181-183.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.030]
点击复制

城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年8期
页码:
181-183
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-08-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on acceptable criteria for life loss risk of urban gas accidents
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-08-0181-06
作者:
张鹏1; 秦国晋2; 王艺环2
(1.西南石油大学 土木工程与建筑学院，四川 成都 610500；2. 西南石油大学 机电工程学院，四川 成都 610500)
Author(s):
ZHANG Peng1;  QIN Guojin2;  WANG Yihuan2
(1. School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China;2. School of Mechatronic Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China)
关键词:
城市燃气; 风险可接受标准; 生活质量指数; 生命损失风险; F-N曲线
Keywords:
urban gas;  risk acceptable criterion;  life quality index;  life loss risk;  F-N curve
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.08.030
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高我国城市燃气风险管理水平，帮助风险管理者科学地分配维护资源，探讨提出了我国城市燃气事故生命损失风险可接受标准；采用AIR指标法确定了个人风险可接受标准范围为(2.397 3×10-7,4.794 7×10-7)；运用F-N曲线法结合ALARP原则，确定了社会风险可接受标准，最大可接受风险的截距为4.794 7×10-7，可忽略风险的截距为4.794 7×10-8；利用生活质量指数推导模型，计算了达到城市燃气事故可忽略风险水平的最优安全投入成本；基于风险动态原则，分析提出了风险可接受标准的更新办法。研究结果表明：我国城市燃气行业可接受风险水平低于煤矿、大坝、化工等危险行业的可接受风险水平；虽然我国城市燃气事故死亡率逐年降低，但要达到可忽略的风险水平，每年还需大量安全资金投入。
Abstract:
In order to improve the risk management level of urban gas in China, and help the risk managers to allocate the maintenance resources scientifically, the acceptable criteria for the life loss risk of urban gas accidents in China were discussed and proposed. The AIR index method was used to determine the acceptable criterion range of individual risk, which was (2.397 3×10-7, 4.794 7×10-7). The F-N curve method combining with the ALARP principle were used to determine the acceptable criterion of social risk, the intercept of the maximum acceptable risk was 4.794 7×10-7, and the intercept of negligible risk was 4.794 7×10-8. The derivation model of life quality index was used to calculate the optimal safety input cost for reaching the negligible risk level of urban gas accidents. Based on the risk dynamic principle, a renewal method of risk acceptable criteria was put forward. The results showed that the acceptable risk level of urban gas industry was lower than those of the dangerous industries such as coal, dam and chemical industry in China. Although the mortality of urban gas accidents in China decreased year by year, a large amount of safety fund input is still needed every year to reach the negligible risk level.

参考文献/References:

［1］中华人民共和国住房和城乡建设部.中国城市建设年鉴［M］.北京：中国计划出版社，2017.
［2］STARR C. Social benefit versus technological risk ［J］. Science，1969， 165(3899)：1232-1238.
［3］HSE. Transportfatal accidents and FN-curves：1967-2001［M］.London：Her Majesty's Stationery Office, 2003：3-4.
［4］AVEN T, ROGALAND U. Safety acceptance criteria for oil/gas production systems［C］//Society of petroleum engineers. Health, Safety and Environment in Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Conference. The Hague, Netherlands, 1991.
［5］高建明,王喜奎,曾明荣.个人风险和社会风险可接受标准研究进展及启示［J］.中国安全生产科学技术, 2007，3(3)：29-34. GAO Jianming, WANG Xikui, ZENG Mingrong. Research progress and enlightenment of acceptable criteria for personal risk and social risk ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2007,3(3)：29-34.
［6］FISCHHOFF B. Acceptable risk：A conceptual proposal ［J］. Risk：Safety, Health and Environment,1994,5：1-18.
［7］刘莉,谢礼立,胡进军.城市地震的可接受死亡风险研究［J］.自然灾害学报,2010,19(4)：1-7. LIU Li, XIE Lili, HU Jinjun. Study on the acceptable death risk of urban earthquake ［J］. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2010,19(4)：1-7.
［8］陈洁,王超,苏清斌.雷电灾害个人可接受风险研究［J］.陕西气象,2016(1)：33-35. CHEN Jie, WANG Chao, SU Qingbin. Study on personal acceptability of lightning disaster ［J］. Journal of Shaanxi Meteorology, 2016(1)：33-35.
［9］肖义, 郭生练, 熊立华, 等. 大坝安全评价的可接受风险研究与评述［J］. 安全与环境学报, 2005, 5(3)：90-94. XIAO Yi, GUO Shenglian, XIONG Lihua, et al. Research and comment on acceptable risk of dam safety evaluation ［J］. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2005,5(3)：90-94.
［10］李典庆, 唐文勇, 张圣坤. 海洋工程风险接受准则研究进展［J］. 海洋工程,2003, 21(2)：96-102. LI Dianqing, TANG Wenyong, ZHANG Shengkun. Research progress on risk acceptance criteria for marine engineering［J］. The Ocean Engineering, 2003,21(2)：96-102.
［11］范小杉, 罗宏. 可接受环境风险水平研究方法［J］. 生态经济，2011(7)：174-176. FAN Xiaoshan, LUO Hong. Research methods of acceptable environmental risk level ［J］. Journal of Ecological Economy, 2011(7)：174-176.
［12］张杰. 基于风险可接受水平的规划环境风险评价［D］.兰州：兰州大学, 2010.
［13］马玉宏, 谢礼立.我国社会可接受地震人员死亡率的研究［J］.自然灾害学报，2001，10(3)：56-63. MA Yuhong, XIE Lili. Research on social acceptable earthquake mortality in China［J］. Journal of Natural Disasters, 2001,10(3)：56-63.
［14］JONKMAN S N, VAN GELDER P H A J M, VRIJLING J K. An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage［J］.Journal of Hazardous Materials，2003，99(1)：1-30.
［15］刘爱华，黄检，吴卓儒，等.城市燃气管道状况及燃气事故统计分析［J］.煤气与热力，2017，37(10)：27-33. LIU Aihua, HUANG Jian, WU Zhuoru, et al. Statistics analysis of urban gas pipeline situation and gas accidents［J］. GAS & HEAT, 2017, 37(10)：27-33.
［16］FISCHHOFF B. Acceptable risk［M］.Cambridge：Cambridge University Press，1981.
［17］吕保和,李宝岩.可接受风险标准研究现状与思考［J］.工业安全与环保,2011,37(3)：24-26. LYU Baohe, LI Baoyan. Research status and thinking of acceptable risk standard ［J］.Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2011,37(3)：24-26.
［18］张舒,李夏林,吴超,等.我国煤矿可接受风险标准研究［J］.中国安全科学学报,2015,25(1)：158-164. ZHANG Shu, LI Xialin, WU Chao，et al. Study on the acceptable risk standard of coal mine in China ［J］. China Safety Science Journal,2015,25(1)：158-164.
［19］李剑峰,刘茂,冉丽君.公共场所人群聚集个人风险的研究［J］.安全与环境学报, 2006, 6(5)：112-115. LI Jianfeng, LIU Mao, RAN Lijun. Study on individual risks in case of large massing crowd in public venues［J］. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2006, 6(5)：112-115.
［20］中华人民共和国国家统计局. 中国统计年鉴［M］. 北京：中国统计出版社, 2017.
［21］谭钦文,段正肖,董勇,等.基于事故数据分析推导的全国及化工行业可接受风险标准基准值研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2017, 13(9)：185-192. TAN Qinwen, DUAN Zhengxiao, DONG Yong，et al. Study on standard reference values of acceptable risk criteria for nation and chemical industry based on accident data analysis and derivation ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2017, 13(9)：185-192.
［22］KJELLEN U. Integrating analyses of the risk of occupational accidents into the design process-Part II Method for prediction of the LTI-rate ［J］.Safety Science, 1995, 19(1)：3-18.
［23］EDWARD M, MARSZAL. Tolerable risk guidelines ［J］. ISA Transaction, 2001, 40(4)：391-399.
［24］KONTOVAS C A. Formal safety assessment critical review and future role ［J］. Marine Technology, 2009, 46(1)：45-49.
［25］PHILIPSON L L. Risk acceptance criteria and their development［J］.Journal of Medical Systems, 1983, 7(5) ：437.
［26］SKJONG R. Risk acceptance criteria：Current proposals and IMO position［C］// Surface transport technologies for sustainable development, Valencia, Spain, 4-6 June, 2002.
［27］李宝岩. 可接受风险标准研究［D］.镇江：江苏大学，2010.
［28］FARMER F R. Siting criteria -a new approach ［J］. Atom, 1967,128：152-166.
［29］FELL R．Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk ［J］. Canadian Geotechnical Journal，1994，31：261-272．
［30］刘冬华, 刘茂.基于生活质量指数的风险社会可接受性研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2007, 3(4)：47-50. LIU Donghua, LIU Mao. Social risk acceptability based on life quality index ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2007, 3(4)：47-50.
［31］RACKWITZ R. Optimization and risk acceptability based on the life quality index ［J］. Structural Safety, 2002, 24(2-4)：297-331.

相似文献/References:

[1]李军,秦朝葵,马洪敬.城市高压燃气管道的结构可靠性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.019]
　LI Jun,QIN Chao-kui,MA Hong-jing.Analysis on structural reliability of urban high-pressure gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(8):113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.019]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(50974105)；中国工程院重大咨询研究项目(2011-ZD-20)；高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金项目(20105121110003)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-09-03