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[1]李军,张宏,梁海滨,等.基于模糊综合评价的燃气管道第三方破坏失效研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):140-145.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.024]
　LI Jun,ZHANG Hong,LIANG Haibin,et al.Study on failure of gas pipeline due to third party damage based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(8):140-145.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.024]
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基于模糊综合评价的燃气管道第三方破坏失效研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年8期
页码:
140-145
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-08-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on failure of gas pipeline due to third party damage based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation
作者:
李军1; 2; 张宏1; 梁海滨2; 赵琪棋3; 任乐梅3; 焦文玲3
(1. 中国石油大学<北京>机械 与储运学院，北京 102249 ；2. 中石油昆仑燃气有限公司，北京 100101； 3.哈尔滨工业大学 市政环境工程学院，黑龙江 哈尔滨 150090)
Author(s):
LI Jun1; 2;  ZHANG Hong1;  LIANG Haibin3;  ZHAO Qiqi3;  REN Lemei3;  JIAO Wenling3
(1. College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 2. PetroChina Kunlun Gas Co., LTD, Beijing 100101, China; 3. School of Municipal and Environmental Engineering, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin Heilongjiang 150090, China)
关键词:
燃气管道; 第三方破坏; 层次分析; 模糊数学; 失效
Keywords:
gas pipeline;  third party damage;  analytic hierarchy process;  fuzzy mathematics;  failure
分类号:
X936
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.024
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对燃气管道第三方破坏事故复杂的特点，基于层次分析和模糊数学的理论，计 算燃气管道第三方破坏风险失效的可能性。全面识别城镇燃气管道第三方破坏事故的危 害因素，构建包含56个基本事件的燃气管道第三方破坏故障树。利用模糊集合隶属函数 ，计算燃气管道发生第三方破坏事故基本事件的模糊概率。利用改进的层次分析法，得 出各专家权重并修正各专家的评估意见，计算管道第三方破坏失效的可能性。以某大型 省会城市燃气管道为例进行验证分析，证明该方法的风险评价结果与实际情况相符，可 为燃气公司安全风险防控提供依据。
Abstract:
Aiming at the characteristics of complexity for gas pipeline accidents due to third party damage, the possibility of gas pipeline failure due to the risk by third party damage was calculated based on the theories of analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy mathematics. The hazard factors of third party damage accidents for urban gas pipeline were identified comprehensively, and a fault tree of third party damage for gas pipeline was constructed, which included 56 basic events. The fuzzy probability of basic events were calculated by using the fuzzy set membership function. The weights of each expert were determined and the evaluation opinions of each expert were revised by using the improved analytic hierarchy process method, then the possibility of gas pipeline failure due to third party damage was calculated. The validation analysis was conducted by taking the urban gas pipeline in a large provincial capital city as example, and it showed that the risk evaluation structure of this method was in line with the actual situation. It can provide basis for the prevention and control of safety risk in gas company.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目（51534008）
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-08-30