|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]盛勇,孙庆云,王永明.突发事件情景演化及关键要素提取方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(1):17-21.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.01.003]
　SHENG Yong,SUN Qing-yun,WANG Yong-ming.Emergency scenario evolution and extraction method of key elements[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(1):17-21.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.01.003]
点击复制

突发事件情景演化及关键要素提取方法
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
11
期数:
2015年1期
页码:
17-21
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2015-01-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Emergency scenario evolution and extraction method of key elements
作者:
盛勇1; 2; 孙庆云2; 王永明2
（1. 常州大学环境与安全工程学院，江苏 常州 213164；2.中国安全生产科学研究院公共安全研究所，北京 100012 ）
Author(s):
SHENG Yong1; 2;  SUN Qing-yun2 ; WANG Yong-ming2
(1. School of Environment & Safety Engineering, Changzhou University, Changzhou Jiangsu 213164, China; 2. Institute of Public Safety, China Academy of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012, China)
关键词:
突发事件; 情景; 演化; 关键要素; 提取
Keywords:
emergency;  scenario;  evolution;  key elements;  extraction
分类号:
X92
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.01.003
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对突发事件应急处置难度大的特点，突发事件应急管理模式必须向“情景-应对”转变。从系统复杂性、开放式预先设想以及序贯性三个主要原则的角度理解突发事件情景演化的机理，构建了突发事件情景演化系统模型，并以此为基础设计了突发事件情景网络关键要素的提取方法。该方法以危险源形成、突发事件演化以及应急响应三方面主要内容为情景网络的主体，以三方面主要内容所涉及的影响因素为分支，适当的选取情景网络关键要素并将关键要素分为四类。该方法的提出弥补了情景网络关键要素提取方法理论的空白，为突发事件情景构建提供了理论支持。
Abstract:
According to the characteristics of difficult in emergency disposal, the emergency management mode must be converted to "scenario-response". The system model of emergency scenario was established based on understanding the evolution mechanism of emergency scenario from three main principles, namely, the system complexity, future-open thinking and sequential property. On this basis, the extraction method of key elements in emergency scenario network was designed. Taking the main contents of three aspects, including hazard source formulation, emergency evolution and emergency response, as the main body of scenario network, and taking the involved influence factors of the above three aspects as branch, the key elements of scenario network were extracted appropriately and divided into four categories. The method compensates the blank in the theory about extraction method of key elements in scenario network, and provides theoretical support for the emergency scenario construction.

参考文献/References:

［1］朱传波,汪政. 非常规突发事件应急管理中的情景分析框架与方法研究［J］. 科技管理研究,2013,（22）:225-227，232 ZHU Chuan-bo，WANG Zheng. Study on scenario analysis framework and relevant methods for unconventional emergency management［J］. Science and Technology Management Research, 2013,（22）:225-227，232
［2］韩智勇,翁文国,张维,等. 重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理［J］. 中国科学基金,2009,(4）:215-220 HAN Zhi-yong, WENG Wen-guo, ZHANG Wei, et al. Backgrounds, targets, and organization of the major research plan “study on unconventional emergencies management” ［J］. Bulletin of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 2009,(4):215-220
［3］刘铁民. 应急预案重大突发事件情景构建——基于“情景－任务－能力”应急预案编制技术研究之一［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术,2012,(4):5-12 LIU Tie-min. Studies on scenes’construction of emergency planning—part I of emergency planning technology based on“scene-task-ability” ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2012,(4):5-12
［4］马千里. 基于要素组合的灾害情景方法研究［D］.哈尔滨工业大学,2012
［5］王颜新. 非常规突发事件情境重构模型研究［D］.哈尔滨工业大学,2011
［6］徐磊. 基于贝叶斯网络的突发事件应急决策信息分析方法研究［D］.哈尔滨工业大学,2013
［7］姜卉. 应急实时决策中的情景表达及情景间关系研究［J］. 电子科技大学学报(社科版),2012,(1) :48-52 JIANG Hui. Expression of scenarios and the relationship among scenarios in emergency real-time decision-making［J］. Journal of UESTC （Social Sciences Edition）,2012,（1）:48-52
［8］Levy D. Chaos Theory and Strategy:Theory, Application and Management Implications. Strategic Management Journal. 1994,(15):167-178
［9］傅毓维,刘拓,朱发根. 混沌理论在公共危机管理中的应用背景［J］. 现代管理科学,2008,（2）:3-5 FU Yu-wei，LIU Tuo, ZHU Fa-gen. Application of chaos theory in public crisis management background［J］. Modern Management Science,2008,（2）:3-5
［10］朱宪辰,李妍绮,曾华翔. 不完美信息下序贯决策行为的一项实验考察——关于羊群行为的贝叶斯模型实验检验［J］. 经济研究,2008,（6）:145-156 ZHU Xian-chen, LI Yan-qi , ZENG Hua-xiang. Experimental researches of sequential decision-making underImperfect information——experimental tests of the bayesian model for herd behavior［J］. Economic Research Journal, 2008,（6）:145-156
［11］李明磊,王红卫,祁超,等. 非常规突发事件应急决策方法研究［J］. 中国安全科学学报,2012,(3):158-163 LI Ming-lei, WANG Hong-wei, QI Chao, et al. Research on unconventional event emergency decision-making methodologies［J］. China Safety Science Journal,2012, (3):158-163
［12］崔云,孔纪名. 地震次生山地灾害链演化的关键成灾因素分析［A］. Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Remote Sensing (ICRS 2010) Volume 3, October 5-6,2010 CUI Yun, KONG Ji-ming. Analysis on the key disaster factors of seismic mountain hazards chains［A］. Proceedings of 2010 International Conference on Remote Sensing (ICRS 2010) Volume 3, October 5-6,2010

相似文献/References:

[1]江田汉,邓云峰,李湖生,等.基于秩和比法的突发事件固有风险水平评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(5):34.
　JIANG Tian-han,DENG Yun-feng,LI Hu-sheng,et al.Inherent risk assessment of emergency incidents based on the rank sum ratio method in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(1):34.
[2]吴发旺.电力突发事件应急管理中的博弈[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):73.
　WU Fa-wang.Game on emergency management of power incident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):73.
[3]朱中华,王则胜.港口水域突发事件应急预案存在的问题与对策分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(3):123.
　ZHU Zhong-hua,WANG Ze-sheng.Analysis and Countermeasure to Problems of Port Waters Emergency Response Plan[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):123.
[4]江田汉,邓云峰,李湖生,等.基于风险的突发事件应急准备能力评估方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(7):35.
　JIANG Tianhan DENG Yunfeng LI Husheng LIU Tiemin JIANG Chuansheng WANG Jianguang WANG Jingjing.Risk-based assessment model for emergency preparedness capability of emergency incidents in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):35.
[5]刘铁民.突发事件应急预案体系概念设计研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(8):5.
　LIU Tie-min.Design of the emergency plan system’s concept[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):5.
[6]杨力.突发事件应急意识和能力建设探讨[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(8):154.
　YANG Li.Study on ascension of emergency consciousness and ability construction[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):154.
[7]郑霞忠,胡斌锋,郑烜.基于水电工程的应急执行力构成要素分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):149.
　ZHENG Xia-zhong,HU Bin-feng,ZHENG Xuan.An analysis on the constituent elements of emergency execution based on the hydropower project[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):149.
[8]李群.突发事件应急推演系统平台分析与设计[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(3):120.
　LI Qun.Analysis and design of simulated emergency exercise system platform[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(1):120.
[9]刘铁民.应急预案重大突发事件情景构建* ——基于“情景-任务-能力”应急预案编制技术研究之一[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):5.
　LIU Tie min.Studies on scenes’ construction of emergency planning ——part I of emergency planning technology based on “scenetaskability”[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(1):5.
[10]王爱莎,彭〓伟.突发事件下某教室的人员疏散研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(8):163.
　WANG Ai sha,PENG Wei.Study on emergency evacuation of a classroom[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(1):163.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目（71103162，91024031，91324020）; 国家“十二五”科技支撑计划课题项目（2012BAK27B01）；中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研项目（2014JBKY02）
更新日期/Last Update: 2015-02-03