|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈兆波,阴东玲,曾建潮,等.基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿事故人因推理[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):145-150.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.025]
　CHEN Zhao-bo,YIN Dong-ling,ZENG Jian-chao,et al.Human factors inference of safety accidents in coal mine based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(11):145-150.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.025]
点击复制

基于贝叶斯网络的煤矿事故人因推理
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年11期
页码:
145-150
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Human factors inference of safety accidents in coal mine based on Bayesian network
作者:
陈兆波; 阴东玲; 曾建潮; 李亨英; 李忠卫
(太原科技大学 工业与系统工程研究所，山西太原030024)
Author(s):
CHEN Zhao-bo;  YIN Dong-ling;  ZENG Jian-chao;  LI Heng-ying;  LI Zhong-wei
(Division of Industry and Systems Engineering, Taiyuan University of Science and Technology, Taiyuan Shanxi 030024, China)
关键词:
煤矿安全; 人为因素分析和分类系统( HFACS); 贝叶斯网络; 人因推理; 最大似然估计
Keywords:
coal mine safety;  human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS);  Bayesian network;  human factors inference;  maximum likelihood estimation
分类号:
X92
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.025
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
煤矿事故的不可重现性决定了事故原因的调查具有很强的不确定性，如何通过事故发生后的相关信息提高事故深层次原因调查的准确性是非常重要的。将HFACS与贝叶斯网络相结合，以煤矿事故HFACS分析结果为样本，通过卡方检验和让步比分析建立人因的贝叶斯网络因果图，进一步利用最大似然估计算法确定了煤矿事故人因的贝叶斯网络参数。最后，以双柳煤业顶板事故的调查信息为证据推理导致煤矿事故发生的深层次原因，提高事故原因调查的准确性，从而验证模型的有效性。
Abstract:
The irreproducibility of accidents in coal mine leads to the uncertainty of investigations on accidents causes, which makes it very important to find out the deep reasons of accidents accurately by using the relevant information collected after the accidents. Combining the human factors analysis and classification system (HFACS) with Bayesian Network (BN), taking HFACS analysis results of coal mine accidents happened before as samples, the Chi-square test and odds ratio analysis were used to establish the Bayesian network causality diagram of human factors, and the maximum likelihood estimation algorithm was used to determine the Bayesian network parameters of human factors. Finally, based on survey information of the roof accident in Shuangliu Coal Industry Group, the deep reasons of accident were speculated, and the validity of the model was verified because of the accuracy improvement of accident investigation.

参考文献/References:

［1］陈红，祈慧，宋学锋,等. 煤矿重大事故中管理失误行为影响因素结构模型［J］. 煤炭学报，2006，31(5)：689-696 CHEN Hong, QI Hui, SONG Xue-feng, et al. The structural model of affecting factors of management misconduct in coal mine fatal accidents in China ［J］. Journal of China Coal Society, 2006, 31(5):689-696
［2］Wiegmann D A, Shappell S A. A human error analysis of commercial aviation accidents using the human factors analysis and classification system ［R］. The Report of Office of Aviation Medicine Federal Aviation Administration, 2001: 1-18
［3］Lenné M G, Salmon P M, Liu C C, et al. A systems approach to accident causation in mining: an application of the HFACS method ［J］. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2012, 48(2): 111-117
［4］Patterson J M, Shappell S A. Operator error and system deficiencies: analysis of 508 mining incidents and accidents from queensland, Australia using HFACS［J］. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 2010, 42(4): 1379-1385
［5］陈兆波，曾建潮，董追，等. 基于HFACS 的煤矿安全事故人因分析［J］. 中国安全科学学报，2013，13(7)：116-121 CHEN Zhao-bo, ZENG Jian-cao, DONG Zui, et al.Analysis of human factors in coal mine accidents based on HFACS［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2013, 13(7): 116-121
［6］李彦斌，金宁，洪梦琳. 基于HFACS和灰色关联法电网企业人为事故隐性危险源的辨识与评价［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术，2013，9(2)：157-161 LI Yan-bin，JIN Ning，HONG Meng-lin. Human accident hidden hazard identification and evaluation of power grid enterprise based on HFACS and grey correlation analysis method ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2013, 9(2): 157-161
［7］冀俊忠，刘椿年，沙志强. 贝叶斯网模型的学习、推理和应用［J］. 计算机工程与应用，2003，39(5)：24-27 JI Jun-zhong, LIU Chun-nian, SHA Zhi-qiang. Bayesian network model learning, inference and application［J］.Computer Engineering and Applications, 2003, 39(5): 24-27
［8］高扬，葛培荣，李阳. 基于贝叶斯网络的航空器看错落错跑道事件研究［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术，2010，6(2)：66-70 GAO Yang, GE Pei-rong, LI Yang. Analysis of take-off or landing wrong runway in civil airport based on bayesian network ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology, 2010, 6(2): 66-70
［9］赵金宝，邓卫，王建. 基于贝叶斯网络的城市道路交通事故分析［J］. 东南大学学报(自然科学版)，2011，41(6)：1300-1306 ZHAO jin-bao, DENG Wei, WANG Jian. Bayesian network based urban road traffic accidents analys［J］. Journal of Southeast University (Natural Science Edition), 2011, 41(6): 1300-1306
［10］张一文，齐佳音，方滨兴，等. 基于贝叶斯网络建模的非常规危机事件网络舆情预警研究［J］. 图书情报工作，2012，56(2)：76-81 ZHANG Yi-wen, QI Jia-yin, FANG Bin-xing, et al. On line public opinion risk warning based on Bayesian network modeling［J］. Library and Information Service, 2012, 56(2): 76-81

相似文献/References:

[1]谭斌,曹庆仁,岳文静.煤矿安全管理中的常见组织错误及其防控途径[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):149.
　TAN Bin,CAO Qing-ren,YUE Wen-jing.Common organization error and its prevent-control approaches of coalmine safety management[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(11):149.
[2]苗永春,付玉凯,霍佳瑜.沁海煤矿瓦斯重大灾害及生产动态安全状况诊断[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(6):68.
　MIAO Yong-chun,FU Yu-kai,HUO Jia-yu.Diagnosis in gas major disaster and dynamic security of qin hai coal production process[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(11):68.
[3]金铌.我国煤矿事故的特征及微观原因分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(6):104.
　JIN Ni.Analysis of coal mine accident characterisitcs and micro factors in China[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(11):104.
[4]齐敏菊,高光发.煤矿安全地理信息系统的研究进展及发展趋势[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(9):144.
　QI Min-ju,GAO Guang-fa.Research Advances and Tendency in Coalmine Safety Geographical Information System[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(11):144.
[5]徐阳.煤矿安全生产面临的问题及对策[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(6):229.
　XU Yang.Faced problems and countermeasures of coal mine safety[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(11):229.
[6]刘海滨,李光荣,刘 欢,等.基于ART-2人工神经网络的煤矿安全风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(2):81.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.02.014]
　LIU Hai bin,LI Guang rong,LIU Huan,et al.Coal mine safety risk assessment based on ART2 neural network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(11):81.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.02.014]
[7]祁运田,吕品.基于B/S与C/S混合模式的煤矿安全信息系统研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2008,4(05):62.
　QI Yun tian,LV Pin.Research on mine safety information system based on B/S and C/S mode[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2008,4(11):62.
[8]郭瑞,陈兆波,李亨英,等.员工能力对煤矿企业激励措施的影响关系研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(2):191.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.02.031]
　GUO Rui,CHEN Zhao-bo,LI Heng-ying,et al.Research on influence of staff ability on incentive measures in coal mine enterprise[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(11):191.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.02.031]
[9]汪伟忠,卢明银,张振芳.煤矿作业人员系统风险知觉能力量化分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(8):152.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.025]
　WANG Wei-zhong,LU Ming-yin,ZHANG Zhen-fang.Quantitative analysis on perceptual ability of systematic risk for coal miners[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(11):152.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.025]
[10]何叶荣,孟祥瑞,罗文科,等.基于耦合协调度的煤矿安全应急管理评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):115.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.019]
　HE Yerong,MENG Xiangrui,LUO Wenke,et al.Evaluation on emergency management of coal mine safety based on coupling coordination degree[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(11):115.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.019]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目(41140026,41272374)；山西省高等学校科技创新项目(2013135)；山西省软科学项目(2013041018, 2011041017-01)
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-11-30