|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]武晓旭,龚孔成,贾明涛.煤矿事故预测的指数平滑—BP神经网络混合模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(9):165-169.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.028]
　WU Xiao-xu,GONG Kong-cheng,JIA Ming-tao.Research on mixed model of exponential smoothing method and BP neural network for accidents forecasting in coal mine[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(9):165-169.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.028]
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煤矿事故预测的指数平滑—BP神经网络混合模型研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年9期
页码:
165-169
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on mixed model of exponential smoothing method and BP neural network for accidents forecasting in coal mine
作者:
武晓旭1; 龚孔成2; 贾明涛1
（1.中南大学 资源与安全工程学院，湖南长沙410083; 2.江苏华东有色投资控股有限公司，江苏南京210007）
Author(s):
WU Xiao-xu1;  GONG Kong-cheng2;  JIA Ming-tao1
(1. School of Resources & Safety Engineering, Central South University, Changsha Hunan 410083, China; 2. Eastern China non-ferrous metals investment holding Co. Ltd, Nanjing Jiangsu 210007, China)
关键词:
指数平滑法; BP神经网络; 混合模型; 煤矿事故; 预测
Keywords:
exponential smoothing method;  BP neural network;  mixed model;  coal mine accidents;  forecasting
分类号:
X928.03
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.028
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为准确预测煤矿未来安全生产形势，采用指数平滑法、BP神经网络模型对我国1991~2010年煤矿死亡人数进行建模研究。在分析两单一模型预测结果后进一步采用指数平滑-BP神经网络混合模型对原数据进行分析，结果表明混合模型泛化能力强，预测精度高，更加符合煤矿事故发展的特点，适用于对煤矿死亡人数的预测。并应用该混合模型对2014年及未来五年的煤矿死亡人数进行预测和分析，为煤矿安全管理提供理论依据，有助于最大限度地减少事故的发生。
Abstract:
In order to accurately forecast the future situation of work safety in coal mine, the exponential smoothing method and BP neural network model were used to study the death toll of coal mine from 1991 to 2010. After analyzing the predicted results of two single models, the raw data was further studied by mixed model of exponential smoothing method and BP neural network. The results showed that the mixed model has better generalization ability and higher prediction accuracy, which is more in accordance with the developmental feature of coal mine accidents and is suitable for forecasting the death toll of coal mine. At last the mixed model was applied to analyze and forecast the death toll in 2014 and the next five years. It provides the theoretical basis for safety management of coal mine and contributes to minimize the accidents.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家高技术研究发展计划（863计划）项目(2011AA060407)；国家自然科学基金项目（51374242）
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-09-30