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[1]段在鹏,王照阳,俞思雅,等.多疫区复杂交互影响下的防疫物资动态调度研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(6):40-47.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.06.006]
　DUAN Zaipeng,WANG Zhaoyang,YU Siya,et al.Research on dynamic scheduling of epidemic prevention materials under complex interaction in multiple epidemic areas[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(6):40-47.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.06.006]
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多疫区复杂交互影响下的防疫物资动态调度研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
19
期数:
2023年6期
页码:
40-47
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2023-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on dynamic scheduling of epidemic prevention materials under complex interaction in multiple epidemic areas
文章编号:
1673-193X(2023)-06-0040-08
作者:
段在鹏; 王照阳; 俞思雅; 黄萍
（1.福州大学 经济与管理学院，福建 福州 350108；
2.福建省应急管理研究中心，福建 福州 350108；
3.福州大学 环境与安全工程学院，福建 福州 350108）
Author(s):
DUAN Zaipeng;  WANG Zhaoyang;  YU Siya;  HUANG Ping
(1.School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350108,China;
2.Fujian Emergency Management Research Center,Fuzhou Fujian 350108,China;
3.College of Environment & Safety Engineering,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou Fujian 350108,China)
关键词:
多疫区交互影响; 物资动态调度; 系统动力学; 遗传算法; 需求紧迫度
Keywords:
multiple epidemic areas interaction;  material dynamic scheduling;  system dynamics;  genetic algorithm;  demand urgency
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.06.006
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为解决重大疫情多疫区交互影响风险下的物资调度问题，首先基于系统动力学建立重大传染病疫情动态演变模型，并以2020年某市疫情为实例，运用配对样本t检验方法比对真实数据与预测数据，验证模型的有效性；然后考虑地缘关联，建立多疫区交互影响的疫情动态演变模型，根据现有疫情数据预测未来在诊治疗人口数量，进而实时预测防疫物资动态需求量；最后将预测物资量作为疫区实时需求量，以调度时间最短、优先疫区高需求紧迫度为目标，构建多疫区防疫物资动态调度模型，并设计遗传算法求解。研究结果表明：构建的多疫区防疫物资动态调度模型可准确刻画多疫区复杂交互关系，进而动态预测防疫物资需求量，研究结果可有效解决存在交互关系的多疫区实时物资动态调度问题。
Abstract:
In order to solve the problem of material scheduling under the risk of interaction of multiple epidemic areas in major epidemics,a dynamic evolution model of major infectious disease epidemic was established based on system dynamics.Taking the epidemic situation of a city in 2020 as an example,the paired sample t test method was used to compare the real data with the predicted data,so as to verify the validity of the model.Then,considering the geographical correlation,a dynamic evolution model of epidemic situation with the interaction of multiple epidemic areas was established.According to the existing epidemic data,the number of population under treatment in the future was predicted,and then the dynamic demand of epidemic prevention materials was predicted in real time.Finally,the predicted material quantity was taken as the real-time demand of the epidemic area,and the dynamic scheduling model of epidemic prevention materials in multiple epidemic areas was constructed with the goal of ‘shortest scheduling time’ and ‘priority to meet the urgent demand of epidemic areas’,and the genetic algorithm was designed to solve the problem.The results show that the dynamic scheduling model of epidemic prevention materials in multiple epidemic areas can accurately describe the complex interactive relationship of multiple epidemic areas,then dynamically predict the demand for epidemic prevention materials,and effectively solve the problem of real-time dynamic scheduling of materials in multiple epidemic areas with interactive relationship.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2022-09-04
* 基金项目： 福建省社会科学基金项目（FJ2022B052）；国家社会科学基金项目（17CGL049）
作者简介： 段在鹏，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为防疫物资优化调度。
通信作者： 黄萍，博士，教授，主要研究方向为应急与安全管理教学。
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-07-09