|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]宁志康,许述剑,刘曦泽,等.基于Bayesian网络的常减压装置设备故障概率分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2022,18(6):185-190.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.06.028]
 NING Zhikang,XU Shujian,LIU Xize,et al.Fault probability analysis of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit equipment based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2022,18(6):185-190.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.06.028]
点击复制

基于Bayesian网络的常减压装置设备故障概率分析
分享到:

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
18
期数:
2022年6期
页码:
185-190
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2022-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Fault probability analysis of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit equipment based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2022)-06-0185-06
作者:
宁志康许述剑刘曦泽许可屈定荣
(中石化安全工程研究院有限公司,山东 青岛 266104)
Author(s):
NING Zhikang XU Shujian LIU Xize XU Ke QU Dingrong
(SINOPEC Research Institute of Safety Engineering Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao Shandong 266104,China)
关键词:
设备故障失效模式常减压装置Bayesian网络
Keywords:
equipment fault failure mode atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit Bayesian network
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2022.06.028
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为分析影响常减压蒸馏装置平稳运行的设备失效模式及故障部件,基于1 151条设备故障数据,采用Bayesian网络分析方法,分别对离心泵、压缩机、电动机构建基于Bayesian网络的设备故障概率分析模型,分析故障部件、失效模式、故障后果之间的定量概率关系。研究结果表明:离心泵、压缩机、电动机停运的关键致因部件分别为轴承箱密封故障、活塞环故障、轴承故障,同时得到导致设备停运的故障部件敏感度排序。研究结果有助于提高设备故障风险防范及检维修工作效率,同时可为备件优化方案提供思路。
Abstract:
In order to analyze the equipment failure modes and fault components that affect the smooth operation of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit,based on 1151 equipment fault data,the Bayesian network analysis method was used to construct the equipment fault probability analysis model based on Bayesian network for the centrifugal pump,compressor and motor,respectively,and the quantitative probability relationship between fault component,failure mode and fault consequence was analyzed.The results showed that the key components causing the shutdown of centrifugal pump,compressor and motor were the seal fault of bearing box,piston ring fault and bearing fault,respectively.At the same time,the sensitivity ranking of fault components causing the shutdown of equipment was obtained.The analysis results are helpful to improve the risk prevention of equipment fault and the efficiency of inspection and maintenance,and provide ideas for the optimization scheme of spare parts.

参考文献/References:

[1]李飞.H炼油厂常减压装置改造项目投资效益分析[D].吉林:吉林大学,2015.
[2]ZHANG J,CAI B,MULENGA K,et al.Bayesian network-based risk analysis methodology:a case of atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2018,117:660-674.
[3]KIDAM K,HURME M.Analysis of equipment failures as contributors to chemical process accidents[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2013,91:61-78.
[4]LI W,HE M,SUN Y,et al.A novel layered fuzzy Petri nets modelling and reasoning method for process equipment failure risk assessment[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019,62:103953.
[5]NI T,FEI J,WANG S,et al.Failure analysis on unexpected perforation of heat exchanger tube in methacrylic acid reboiler of specialty chemical plant[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2020,108:104267.
[6]WU W,CHENG G,HU H,et al.Risk analysis of corrosion failures of equipment in refining and petrochemical plants based on fuzzy set theory[J].Engineering Failure Analysis,2013,32:23-34.
[7]廖静雯,杨剑锋,陈良超,等.典型常减压装置塔类设备腐蚀失效案例统计分析[J].北京化工大学学报(自然科学版),2020,47(6):85-91. LIAO Jingwen YANG Jianfeng,CHEN Liangchao,et al.Statistical analysis of corrosion failure cases in typical atmospheric pressure and vacuum tower equipment[J].Journal of Beijing University of Chemical Technology(Natural Science Edition),2020,47(6):85-91.
[8]陈文武,郭路莉,黄贤滨,等.12Mt/a常减压装置的典型腐蚀及防护[J].腐蚀与防护,2020,41(1):41-46. CHEN Wenwu,GUO Luli,HUANG Xianbin,et al.Typical corrosion cases and protective measures of 12Mt/a atmospheric and vacuum distillation unit[J].Corrosion & Protection,2020,41(1):41-46.
[9]张英,吕佳慧,王卫泽,等.失效数据库的建立和近年国内失效案例的统计分析[J].金属热处理,2019,44(S1):668-675. ZHANG Ying,LYU Jiahui,WANG Weize,et al.Establishment of failure database and statistical analysis of domestic failure cases based in recent years[J].Heat Treatment of Metals,2019,44(S1):668-675.
[10]张吉园.离心式压缩机长周期运行故障原因分析与研究[D].兰州:兰州大学,2015.
[11]陈进.原油输送泵振动故障原因分析及改进[J].石油化工技术与经济,2018,34(3):30-34. CHEN Jin.Cause analysis and improvement of vibration failure of crude oil transfer pump[J].Technology & Economics in Petrochemicals,2018,34(3):30-34.
[12]LIU Z,LIU Y.A Bayesian network based method for reliability analysis of subsea blowout preventer control system[J].Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries,2019(59):44-53.
[13]CAI B,HUANG L,XIE M.Bayesian networks in fault diagnosis[J].IEEE Transactions on Industrial Informatics,2017,13(5):2227-2240.
[14]寇兴怡,帅斌,黄文成.基于贝叶斯网络的高速动车组运营故障分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(4):63-69. KOU Xingyi,SHUAI Bin,HUANG Wencheng.Analysis on operation fault of high-speed EMU based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2020,16(4):63-69.
[15]魏亚荣,李长俊,吴瑕.基于贝叶斯网络的页岩气集输管道失效概率计算方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(1):121-127. WEI Yarong,LI Zhangjun,WU Xia.Study on calculation method of failure probability for gathering pipeline of shale gas based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(1):121-127.
[16]胡勇健,肖志怀,周云飞,等.基于贝叶斯网络Noisy Or模型的水电机组故障诊断研究[J].水力发电学报,2015,34(6):197-203. HU Yongjian,XIAO Zhihuai,ZHOU Yunfei,et al.Study of hydropower units fault diagnosis based on Bayesian network Noisy Or model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2015,34(6):197-203.
[17]ROSTAMABADI A,JAHANGIRI M,ZAREI E,et al.A novel Fuzzy Bayesian Network-HFACS (FBN-HFACS) model for analyzing Human and Organization Factors (HOFs) in process accidents[J].Process Safety and Environmental Protection,2019,132:59-72.

相似文献/References:

[1]雷军,樊建春,刘书杰,等.基于数理统计的深水防喷器系统安全关键性失效分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(12):106.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.12.018]
 LEI Jun,FAN Jian-chun,LIU Shu-jie,et al.Analysis on safety critical failure of deepwater BOP system based on mathematical statistics[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(6):106.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.12.018]
[2]李勐,张宏,王宝栋,等.基于有限元的含腐蚀缺陷P110油管失效分析与安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(11):93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.016]
 LI Meng,ZHANG Hong,WANG Baodong,et al.Failure analysis and safety evaluation on P110 oil tube containing corrosion defects based on finite element method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(6):93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.016]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期: 2021-08-24
作者简介: 宁志康,硕士研究生,助理工程师,主要研究方向为设备可靠性分析与气体泄漏扩散仿真。
更新日期/Last Update: 2022-07-10