|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈芳,韩美佳,陈茜.基于零膨胀模型的航空器危险接近事件安全影响因素研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(2):147-151.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.023]
　CHEN Fang,HAN Meijia,CHEN Xi.Research on safety influencing factors of aircraft near-midair collision events based on zeroinflated model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(2):147-151.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.023]
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基于零膨胀模型的航空器危险接近事件安全影响因素研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年2期
页码:
147-151
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on safety influencing factors of aircraft near-midair collision events based on zeroinflated model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-02-0147-05
作者:
陈芳; 韩美佳; 陈茜
（中国民航大学 经济与管理学院，天津 300300）
Author(s):
CHEN Fang;  HAN Meijia;  CHEN Xi
(College of Economic & Management,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
关键词:
零膨胀有序概率模型; 航空器; 危险接近; 碰撞风险
Keywords:
zero-inflated ordered probit model;  aircraft;  near-midair collision;  collision risk
分类号:
X949
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.023
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为探究航空器危险接近事件安全影响因素，降低航空器碰撞风险,利用二元概率函数区分航空器危险接近事件危险状态,利用probit函数确定不同风险等级结果，构建航空器危险接近事件零膨胀有序概率模型。结果表明：机组人员程序执行偏差、侵犯领空（无人驾驶飞机未获许可在管制空域飞行）、意图沟通无效或不充分、未监控其他飞机或监控不及时4个安全影响因素，增加航空器危险接近时碰撞风险概率分别为7.03%、4.25%、7.14%和6.03%。
Abstract:
In order to explore the safety influencing factors of aircraft near-midair collision events and avoid the risk of aircraft collision,the binary probability function was used to distinguish the risk status of aircraft near-midair collision events,then the probit function was used to determine the results of different risk levels,and a zero-inflated ordered probit model for the aircraft near-midair collision events was constructed.The results showed that there were four safety influencing factors including the program execution deviation of crew,violation of airspace (unmanned aircraft flying in controlled airspace without permission),ineffective or inadequate communication of intent,and failing in monitoring other aircrafts or failing in monitoring them timely,and their probability of increasing the collision risk in case of aircraft near-midair collision was 7.03%,4.25%,7.14% and 6.03%,respectively.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-07-16
* 基金项目： 2019年民航局安全能力项目（ASSA2019/19）
作者简介： 陈芳，博士，教授，主要研究方向为民航安全管理及系统安全。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-03-11