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[1]贺治超,毕先志,翁文国.基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(12):11-16.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.002]
　HE Zhichao,BI Xianzhi,WENG Wenguo.Risk quantification management of domino accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(12):11-16.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.002]
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基于蒙特卡洛模拟的多米诺事故风险量化管理*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年12期
页码:
11-16
栏目:
特邀专栏
出版日期:
2020-12-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk quantification management of domino accidents based on Monte Carlo simulation
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-12-0011-06
作者:
贺治超; 毕先志; 翁文国
（1.清华大学 工程物理系 公共安全研究院,北京 100084；
2.中石油北京天然气管道有限公司天津输气管理处，天津 301799)
Author(s):
HE Zhichao;  BI Xianzhi;  WENG Wenguo
(1.Institute of Public Safety Research,Department of Engineering Physics,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;
2.Tianjin Gas Transmission Management Office of PetroChina Beijing Gas Pipeline Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 301799,China)
关键词:
化工多米诺事故; 蒙特卡洛模拟; 风险量化; 风险全周期管理
Keywords:
chemical domino accident;  Monte Carlo simulation;  risk quantification;  fullcycle risk management
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.12.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为降低危化品相关的化工事故造成的人员伤亡和财产损失，以化工多米诺事故为研究对象，探讨由初始事故引发1个或多个次生事故的连锁反应机理与风险评估方法。提出应用蒙特卡洛模拟对多米诺事故风险进行动态量化的方法，梳理化工多米诺事故风险的识别、分析、评定、处理全周期管理流程，并以1个天然气压气站为案例，验证基于蒙卡模拟的化工多米诺事故风险量化方法的有效性。结果表明：该方法可以更准确地对化工多米诺事故风险进行定量评估。多米诺事故风险全周期管理流程的梳理能够有效指导化工企业开展安全管理、事故预防等工作。
Abstract:
In order to reduce the casualties and property losses caused by the chemical accidents related to hazardous chemicals,the chemical domino accidents were taken as the research object to explore the chain reaction mechanism and risk assessment methods of one or more secondary accidents caused by the initial accident.A method of applying Monte Carlo simulation to dynamically quantify the risk of domino accidents was put forward,and the fullcycle management process of identifying,analyzing,assessing,and dealing with the risk of chemical domino accidents was sorted out.A natural gas compressor station was used as a case to verify the effectiveness of risk quantification method for the chemical domino accidents based on the Monte Carlo simulation.The results showed that the method could quantitatively assess the risk of chemical domino accidents more accurately.The sorting of the fullcycle management process of domino accident risk can effectively guide the chemical enterprises to carry out the safety management,accident prevention,etc.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-12-14
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（72034004，91846301）
作者简介： 贺治超，博士研究生，主要研究方向为化工事故风险量化评估。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-01-08