|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]郝阳,邓云峰,程五一.基于演练决策文本分析的决策者分类及应急决策差异研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(4):12-18.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.04.002]
　HAO Yang,DENG Yunfeng,CHENG Wuyi.Research on decisionmaker classification and emergency decision difference based on text analysis of exercise decisionmaking[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(4):12-18.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.04.002]
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基于演练决策文本分析的决策者分类及应急决策差异研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年4期
页码:
12-18
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2020-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on decisionmaker classification and emergency decision difference based on text analysis of exercise decisionmaking
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-04-0012-07
作者:
郝阳; 邓云峰; 程五一
（1.中国地质大学（北京） 工程技术学院，北京 100083；
2.中共中央党校（国家行政学院），北京 100089）
Author(s):
HAO Yang;  DENG Yunfeng;  CHENG Wuyi
(1.School of Engineering and Technology,China University of Geosciences（Beijing）,Beijing 100083,China;
2.Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C (National Academy of Governance),Beijing 100089,China)
关键词:
文本分析; 决策者; 应急任务
Keywords:
text analysis;  decisionmaker;  emergency task
分类号:
X915.2
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.04.002
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为研究特大地震初期的高层决策行为，通过演练模拟决策者在可得灾情信息下进行决策部署的情形，采集参演决策者独立确认的最终决策文本为样本，对比分析样本对草案修改的方式和程度，将决策者分为独立型、合作型和依赖型。结构化处理提取样本的决策任务，分析与灾情信息及决策建议的相关性。结果表明：在高层决策者中合作型人数比例最高，群组内决策差异较小，质量相对稳定；独立型决策者偏好主观判断，对灾情的关注以及草案漏洞的审查等指标明显低于其他类型；依赖型决策者在使用合理化建议的前提下易做出高质量决策，但在决策支持失误而非漏洞的条件下，能否保证决策质量有待进一步验证。
Abstract:
In order to study the highlevel decisionmaking behavior in the early stage of great earthquake,a case of decisionmaking deployment for the decisionmaker under the acquirable disaster information was simulated through the exercises.The final decisionmaking texts independently confirmed by the decisionmakers participating in the exercises were collected as the samples,then the ways and degrees of draft modification by the samples were compared and analyzed,and the decisionmakers were divided into independent type,cooperative type and dependent type.The decisionmaking tasks of samples were processed and extracted with structuralization,and the correlation between the disaster information and decisionmaking suggestions was analyzed.The results showed that the proportion of cooperative decisionmakers was the highest in the highlevel decisionmakers,the difference of decisionmaking within the group was small,and the quality was relatively stable.The independent decisionmakers preferred the subjective judgment,and the indexes such as the attention to the disaster situation and the review of draft loopholes were significantly lower than the other types.The dependent decisionmaker was easy to make highquality decision under the premise of using reasonable suggestions,but whether the decisionmaking quality could be guaranteed under the condition of decisionmaking support errors rather than loopholes remained to be further verified.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2019-12-12
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0807000）；国家社会科学基金重大项目（16ZDA054）
作者简介： 郝阳，博士研究生，工程师，主要研究方向为应急管理、应急决策行为。
通信作者： 邓云峰，博士，研究员，主要研究方向为应急管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-05-11