|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]卢勇利,朱昌锋,侯耀文.城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(3):128-134.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.021]
　LU Yongli,ZHU Changfeng,HOU Yaowen.Research on decisionmaking of emergency evacuation scheme for urban rail transit station[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(3):128-134.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.021]
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城市轨道交通车站应急疏散方案决策研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年3期
页码:
128-134
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on decisionmaking of emergency evacuation scheme for urban rail transit station
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-03-0128-07
作者:
卢勇利; 朱昌锋; 侯耀文
（兰州交通大学 交通运输学院，甘肃 兰州 730070）
Author(s):
LU Yongli; ZHU Changfeng; HOU Yaowen
（School of Traffic and Transportation，Lanzhou Jiaotong University，Lanzhou Gansu 730070，China）
关键词:
轨道交通; 应急疏散; 决策; 累积前景理论; 集对分析
Keywords:
rail transit;  emergency evacuation;  decisionmaking;  cumulative prospect theory;  set pair analysis
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.021
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
城市轨道交通应急疏散方案决策是1个多准则决策问题，传统方法难以将决策者的偏好与风险倾向纳入考虑，因此引入累积前景理论与集对分析，得到1种结合累积前景理论与集对分析的决策方法。该方法考虑决策者面对风险时的态度，计算出方案的累积前景值；引入集对分析，通过时间权重与准则权重将前景值与集对势联系起来，计算出方案综合集对势，并利用其大小对备选方案进行排序；最后通过实例计算以及对权重的扰动分析，验证了方法有效性。
Abstract:
The decisionmaking of emergency evacuation scheme for the urban rail transit is a multicriteria decisionmaking problem, and it is difficult for the traditional methods to take into account the preferences and risk propensity of decision makers. Therefore, a decisionmaking method combined the cumulative prospect theory and set pair analysis was put forward by introducing into the cumulative prospect theory and set pair analysis. This method considered the attitude of decision makers when facing risks, and calculated the cumulative prospective value of the scheme. The prospective value was connected with the set pair potential through the time weight and criterion weight by introducing into the set pair analysis, then the comprehensive set pair potential of the scheme was calculated, and its amount was used to sort the alternative schemes. Finally, the effectiveness of the method was verified by the example calculation and the perturbation analysis of weights.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期： 2018-09-04
基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目(61364028)；教育部人文社科规划基金项目(15XJAZH002)
作者简介： 卢勇利，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为交通运输规划与管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-04-15