|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈利琼,冯雨翔,孔令圳,等.原油库D/I-SD集成模型风险分析方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(5):137-143.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.05.020]
 CHEN Liqiong,FENG Yuxiang,KONG Lingzhen,et al.Risk analysis method of crude oil depot based on integrated D/I-SD model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(5):137-143.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.05.020]
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原油库D/I-SD集成模型风险分析方法
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年5期
页码:
137-143
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis method of crude oil depot based on integrated D/I-SD model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-05-0137-07
作者:
陈利琼1冯雨翔1孔令圳1马剑琳2
(1.西南石油大学 石油与天然气工程学院,四川 成都 610500;2.中国石油西南管道分公司,四川 成都,610041)
Author(s):
CHEN Liqiong1 FENG Yuxiang1 KONG Lingzhen1 MA Jianlin2
(1.School of Petroleum and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China;2.CNPC Southwest Pipeline Co., Ltd., Chengdu Sichuan 610041, China)
关键词:
D/I-SD法系统动力学原油库风险分析
Keywords:
integrated D/I-SD method system dynamics crude oil depot risk analysis
分类号:
X937;TE972
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.05.020
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为降低原油库的风险水平,基于人、物、环境、管理4类事故致因,在风险因素辨识的基础上,通过集成DEMATEL/ISM法确定了系统间各因素的因果关系和权重,利用Vensim软件建立了系统动力学模型,形成了1种基于DEMATEL/ISM法和系统动力学的原油库风险分析方法,将该方法应用于某原油库进行了风险分析。研究结果表明:影响油库风险的关键因素是企业的安全氛围和监督力度;环境风险和物、管理风险分别对风险发展前期和风险成熟发展阶段影响显著;员工文化程度、设备使用时间、安全氛围和监管力度分别为人、物、环境和管理风险子系统的关键风险因素。D/I-SD法从系统角度剖析了风险动态发展趋势和影响风险的关键因素,可为制定科学的油库风险削减措施提供依据。
Abstract:
In order to reduce the risk level of the crude oil depot, based on four kinds of accident causes including human, equipment, environment and management, and on the basis of identifying the risk factors, the integrated DEMTEL/ISM method was used to determine the causality and weights of each factor among the systems, then a system dynamics model was established by using the Vensim software. A risk analysis method of crude oil depot based on DEMATEL/ISM method and system dynamics was formed, namely the integrated D/I-SD method, and the method was applied to carry out the risk analysis of a crude oil depot. The results showed that the key factors influencing the risk of the oil depot were the safety atmosphere and supervision of the enterprise. The environment risk and the equipment and management risk had a significant impact on the early stage of risk development and the mature stage of risk development, respectively. The education degree of employee, usage time of equipment, safety atmosphere and supervision were the key risk factors for the human, equipment, environment and management risk subsystem, respectively. The integrated D/I-SD method analyzed the dynamic development trend of risk and the factors influencing the risk from the systematic perspective, and it can provide a basis for formulating the scientific risk reduction measures for the crude oil depots.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0802100)
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-06-19