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[1]付邦稳,蒋宏业,徐涛龙,等.基于N-K模型的城市燃气管道失效可能性因素耦合分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(2):145-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.023]
　FU Bangwen,JIANG Hongye,XU Taolong,et al.Coupling analysis on failure possibility factors of urban gas pipeline based on N-K model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(2):145-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.023]
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基于N-K模型的城市燃气管道失效可能性因素耦合分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
14
期数:
2018年2期
页码:
145-149
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2018-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Coupling analysis on failure possibility factors of urban gas pipeline based on N-K model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2018)-02-0145-05
作者:
付邦稳1; 蒋宏业1; 徐涛龙1; 姚安林1; 2
（1. 西南石油大学 石油与天然气工程学院，四川 成都 610500；2. 油气消防四川省重点实验室，四川 成都 610500）
Author(s):
FU Bangwen1;  JIANG Hongye1;  XU Taolong1;  YAO Anlin1; 2
(1. School of Oil and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China; 2. Oil & Gas Fire Protection Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu Sichuan 610500, China)
关键词:
城市燃气管道; N-K模型; 轨迹交叉理论; 因素耦合; 耦合值
Keywords:
urban gas pipeline;  N-K model;  trace intersecting theory;  factors coupling;  coupling value
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.02.023
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为分析多因素耦合作用对城市燃气管道失效可能性的影响，构建了基于复杂网络的N-K模型；应用轨迹交叉理论分析管道失效可能性因素的耦合作用机理；基于N-K模型对2011—2014年所发生的1 127起城市燃气管道事故进行耦合分析，计算不同耦合方式发生的概率和耦合值。结果表明：多因素耦合过程中，参与耦合的因素越多，管道失效的概率越大，但耦合发生的频率却随耦合因素的增加逐渐减少；环境因素和人为因素参与耦合时，管道失效的概率较大。
Abstract:
To analyze the influence of multi-factor coupling effect on the failure possibility of urban gas pipeline, a N-K model based on complex network was constructed. The coupling effect mechanism about the failure probability factors of pipeline was analyzed by using the trace intersecting theory. The coupling analysis was carried out on 1127 urban gas pipeline accidents from 2011 to 2014 based on the N-K model, and the probabilities and coupling values of different coupling modes were calculated. The results showed that in the multi-factor coupling process, the more the factors involved in the coupling, the greater the probability of pipeline failure, but the frequency of coupling gradually decreased with the increase of coupling factors. When the environmental factors and human factors were involved in the coupling, the probability of pipeline failure was greater.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家科技支撑计划项目（2011BAK06B01）
更新日期/Last Update: 2018-03-19