|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李宏浩,付建民,李成美,等.基于Monte Carlo与Markov法参数不确定性条件下SIL评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(9):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020]
　LI Honghao,FU Jianmin,LI Chengmei,et al.SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty based on Monte Carlo and Markov methods[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(9):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020]
点击复制

基于Monte Carlo与Markov法参数不确定性条件下SIL评估
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年9期
页码:
109-113
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty based on Monte Carlo and Markov methods
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-09-0109-05
作者:
李宏浩1; 付建民1; 李成美1; 熊涛2; 邵克拉2; 杨晓丽2
（1.中国石油大学（华东）海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心，山东 青岛 266580；2.新疆油田公司采气一厂，新疆 克拉玛依 834000）
Author(s):
LI Honghao1;  FU Jianmin1;  LI Chengmei1;  XIONG Tao2;  SHAO Kela2;  YANG Xiaoli2
(1. Center for Offshore Equipment and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum, Qingdao Shandong 266580, China;2. No.1 Gas Production Plant of Xinjiang Oilfield Company, Kelamayi Xinjiang 834000, China)
关键词:
安全仪表系统; 安全完整性等级; Markov法; Monte Carlo仿真; 不确定性; Matlab GUI; 高完整性压力保护系统
Keywords:
safety instrumented system (SIS);  safety integrity level;  Markov method;  Carlo Monte simulation;  uncertainty;  Matlab GUI;  high integrity pressure protection system
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.09.020
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了避免由参数不确定性因素导致较大的Markov法SIL评估偏差,且减少计算工作量和复杂性，采用Monte Carlo（MC）仿真方法处理含不确定性参数的Markov模型，并借助Matlab GUI编程开发MC仿真处理参数不确定性条件下Markov法SIL评估可视化仿真计算软件。在理论研究的基础上，为说明该研究方法与计算软件的可行性，以石油天然气工业高完整性压力保护系统（HIPPS）为算例进行SIL评估。结果表明：MC仿真方法可以有效处理Markov法SIL评估中参数不确定性问题；基于Matlab GUI编程设计出的仿真计算软件在一定程度上可以提高计算效率。
Abstract:
In order to avoid the larger deviation of SIL (safety integrity level) evaluation by Markov method caused by parameters uncertainty factor, and reduce the calculation workload and complexity, the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation method was used to process the Markov model with uncertainty parameters, and a visualization simulation calculation software of Markov method SIL evaluation with parameters uncertainty processed by MC simulation was developed by using MATLAB GUI programming. On the basis of theoretical research, an high integrity pressure protection system (HIPPS) in oil and gas industry was taken as example of SIL evaluation to illustrate the feasibility of the research method and calculation software. The results showed that the MC simulation method can effectively deal with the problem of parameters uncertainty in SIL evaluation by Markov method, and the simulation calculation software based on Matlab GUI programming design can improve the calculation efficiency to some extent.

参考文献/References:

［1］Functional safety of electrical/electronic/programmable electronic safety related systems: IEC 61508—2010［S］.
［2］电气电子可编程电子安全相关系统的功能安全：GB/T20438—2006［S］.
［3］过程工业领域安全仪表系统的功能安全：GB/T21109—2007［S］.
［4］Ali Baghaei. 3-Parameters SPW technique: A new method for evaluation of target safety integrity level［J］. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2013, 26(7): 1257-1261.
［5］原红丽. 基于D-S证据理论与Markov安全仪表系统可靠性研究［D］. 重庆: 西南大学, 2013.
［6］LI Guangming, XIU Baoxin. Fuzzy Markov chains based on the fuzzy transition probability ［C］. Chinese Control and Decision Conference(CCDC), 26th, 2014.
［7］Moore, R. Methods and applications of interval analysis in studies in applied mathematics［M］. Society for Industrial Mathematics. America, 1987.
［8］W Mechri, C Simon. Fuzzy multiphase Markov chains to handle uncertainties in safety systems performance assessment［J］. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries, 2013, 26(12): 594-604.
［9］Fares Innal, Yves Dutuit, Mourad Chebila. Monte Carlo analysis and Fuzzy Sets for uncertainty propagation in SIS performance assessment［J］. World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology International Journal of Mathematical, Computational, Physical, Electrical and Computer Engineering, 2013, 7(11): 1567-1575.
［10］张斌, 阳宪惠, 康荣学.安全完整性水平评估中考察参数不确定性影响的一种方法［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2008, 18(8): 135-139.
［11］Mohamed Sallak, Christophe Simon, and Jean-Francois Aubry. A Fuzzy Probabilistic Approach for Determining Safety Integrity Level［J］. IEEE Transactions on fuzzy systems， 2008， 16(1): 239-248.
［12］Ming Xu, Tao Chen, Xian Hui-yang. The effect of parameter uncertainty on achieved safety integrity of safety system. Reliability Engineering and System Safety， 2012(99): 15-23.
［13］Zhang Tieling, Long Wei, Yoshinobu Sato. Availability of system with self-diagnostic componebts-applying Markov models to IEC 61508-6［J］. Reliability Engineering and System Safety, 2003, 80(12): 133-141.
［14］张小辉, 何杰, 过秀成. 基于Monte Carlo仿真的地铁车辆系统可靠性研究［J］. 交通运输工程与信息报, 2010, 8(1): 50-55.ZHANG Xiaohui, HE Jie, GUO Xiucheng. Research on the reliability of metro vehicle system based on Carlo Monte Simulation［J］. Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information, 2010, 8(1): 50-55.
［15］宗节保, 段柳云. 基于MATLAB GUI软件制作方法的研究与实现［J］. 电子设计工程, 2011, 18(7): 54-56.ZONG Jiebao, DUAN Liuyun. Research and realization of method for making software based on MATLAB GUI［J］. Electronic Design Engineering, 2010, 18(7): 54-56.
［16］罗华飞. Matlab GUI设计学习手记［M］. 北京: 北京航空航天大学出版社, 2009: 224-265.
［17］William M. Goble. Control systems safety evaluation & reliability［M］. 3rd ed. America: Instrument Society of America, 2010.
［18］Reliability prediction method for safety instrumented systems: PDS Method Handbook—2010［S］.
［19］任新华. 石油天然气工程中HIPPS的设计与应用［J］. 自动化仪表, 2013, 34(6): 77-79.REN Xinhua. Design and application of HIPPS in petroleum and natural gas project［J］. Process Automation Instrumentation, 2013, 34(6): 77-79.

相似文献/References:

[1]姜颖.重大危险源安全与自动化监控系统[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):161.
　JIANG Ying.Safety and automation manitoring system for major hazard installations[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(9):161.
[2]方来华,吴宗之,康荣学,等.安全设备失效数据获取与计算[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(3):121.
　FANG Lai-hua,WU Zong-zhi,KANG Rong-xue,et al.The acquisition and calculation of failure data of safety equipment[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(9):121.
[3]方来华,吴宗之,康荣学,等.安全仪表系统的性能维护及指标值计算[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(11):46.
　FANG Lai-hua,WU Zong-zhi,KANG Rong-xue,et al.Performance maintenance and indicator value calculation of safety instrumented system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(9):46.
[4]李娜,孙文勇,宁信道.HAZOP、LOPA和SIL方法的应用分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(5):107.
　LI Na,SUN Wen yong,NING Xin dao.The application of HAZOP, LOPA and SIL analytical method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(9):107.
[5]李毅,熊亮,邓海发,等.SIL评估及HAZOP分析技术在海洋平台安全评估中的应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(8):119.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.022]
　LI Yi,XIONG Liang,DENG Hai fa,et al.Application of SIL evaluation and HAZOP analysis technology in safety assessment of offshore platform[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(9):119.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.08.022]
[6]周荣义,钟岸,任竟舟,等.安全系统安全完整性等级确定方法比较研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(3):67.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.03.011]
　ZHOU Rong yi,ZHONG An,REN Jing zhou,et al.Comparative study on determining methods for safety integrity level of safety system[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(9):67.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.03.011]
[7]钱钧,魏利军,李少鹏.安全仪表系统等级划分与HAZOP分析的结合应用[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(5):148.
　QIAN Jun,WEI Li jun,LI Shao peng.Combined application of safety instrumented system classification and HAZOP analysis[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2009,5(9):148.
[8]王海清,乔丹菊,冯军,等.石化装置安全仪表系统KooN表决结构的误跳车率定量分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(12):152.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.12.025]
　WANG Haiqing,QIAO Danju,FENG Jun,et al.Quantitative analysis on spurious trip rate of safety instrumented system with KooN voting architectures in petrochemical plant[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(9):152.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.12.025]
[9]岑康,张翌东,黄夏雨,等.考虑人因可靠性的安全仪表功能SIL验证方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(3):31.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.03.005]
　CEN Kang,ZHANG Yidong,HUANG Xiayu,et al.Study on verification method of safety integrity level (SIL) for safety instrumented function considering human reliability[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(9):31.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.03.005]
[10]李敏睿,王海清,姚竣瀚,等.安全联锁设备SIL验证中的参数估计偏差分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(6):24.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.004]
　LI Minrui,WANG Haiqing,YAO Junhan,et al.Deviation analysis of parameter estimation for SIL verification of safety interlock equipment[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(9):24.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.004]
[11]夏阳光,陶刚,张礼敬.基于FFTA-LOPA的化工装置安全仪表系统SIL确定方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(6):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.06.025]
　XIA Yangguang,TAO Gang,ZHANG Lijing.Study on determination method of SIL for safety instrumented system of chemical plant based on FFTA-LOPA[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(9):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.06.025]
[12]池亚娟,付建民,李宏浩,等.基于人因可靠性的间歇装置SIL分析与改进[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(3):136.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.03.020]
　CHI Yajuan,FU Jianmin,LI Honghao,et al.Analysis and improvement of safety integrity level for batch equipment based on human reliability[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(9):136.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.03.020]
[13]张哲,王璐,徐长峰,等.基于检验测试策略的PFD模型建立与分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(2):128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.020]
　ZHANG Zhe,WANG Lu,XU Changfeng,et al.Establishment and analysis of PFD model based on proof test strategy[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(9):128.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.02.020]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
中国石油新疆油田分公司科技研发项目（CQYC-2016-156）；青岛市民生科技计划重点支持项目(14-2-3-64-nsh)
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-12-08