|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]吴倩,谈伟,盖文妹.基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(3):169-174.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.031]
　WU Qian,TAN Wei,GAI Wenmei.Study on scenario analysis of civil aviation emergency based on dynamic Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(3):169-174.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.031]
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基于动态贝叶斯网络的民航突发事件情景分析研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年3期
页码:
169-174
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-03-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on scenario analysis of civil aviation emergency based on dynamic Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-03-0169-06
作者:
吴倩1; 谈伟2; 盖文妹1
（1.中国民航管理干部学院， 北京 100102 ；2.中国民用航空中南地区空中交通管理局，广东 广州 510800）
Author(s):
WU Qian1;  TAN Wei2;  GAI Wenmei1
（1. Civil Aviation Management Institute of China, Beijing 100102, China; 2. CAAC Air Traffic Management Bureau of Central South Area, Guangzhou Guangdong 510800, China)
关键词:
民航突发事件; 情景构建; 情景分析; 动态贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
civil aviation emergency;  scenario construction;  scenario analysis;  dynamic Bayesian network
分类号:
X949
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.03.031
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
航空运输重大突发事件的应急准备与处置存在问题，应急救援效果不甚理想。建立了基于灾害体、受灾体、孕灾环境以及抗灾体四要素的突发事件情景分析模型，并运用动态贝叶斯网络模型，构建了基于关键时间节点的突发事件情景演化模型。基于上述模型，以某航班降落时起落架故障的典型事件为例进行模型构建与分析，分析结果验证该模型运用于民航突发事件情景分析与评估的合理性和可行性。该模型为提高民航突发事件应急准备与处置能力提供了新的思路与方法。
Abstract:
In recent years, the emergency preparedness and response of major emergency in civil aviation have exposed many problems, and the effect of emergency rescue is unfavorable. A model of emergency scenario analysis based on four elements, including disaster body, disaster-bearing body, disaster-forming environment and anti-disaster body, was established, and the model of emergency scenario evolution based on key time nodes was constructed by using the dynamic Bayesian network model. Taking a typical event of landing gear fault in a flight as example, the construction and analysis of model were conducted. The results showed that the model is reasonable and feasible for the scenario analysis and evaluation of civil aviation emergency. The model provides new ideas and methods for the improvement of emergency preparedness and response capabilities on civil aviation emergency.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
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更新日期/Last Update: 2016-04-15