[1]邹永广,郑向敏.基于突变理论的目的地旅游安全评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(8):175-192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.08.031]
ZOU Yong-guang,ZHENG Xiang-min.Tourism destination safety evaluation based on the catastrophe theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(8):175-192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.08.031]
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基于突变理论的目的地旅游安全评价研究
ZOU Yong-guang,ZHENG Xiang-min.Tourism destination safety evaluation based on the catastrophe theory[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(8):175-192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.08.031]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 10
- 期数:
- 2014年8期
- 页码:
- 175-192
- 栏目:
- 职业安全卫生管理与技术
- 出版日期:
- 2014-08-31
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Tourism destination safety evaluation based on the catastrophe theory
- 分类号:
- X936
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 目的地各种旅游突发事件频发，旅游安全的不确定性愈发凸显，旅游安全评价是目的地旅游安全与应急管理的当务之急。依据目的地旅游安全系统的概念及结构，目的地旅游安全系统包括三个子系统，即核心子系统、辅助子系统和保障子系统，并以此构建了目的地旅游安全评价指标体系，同时应用突变理论模型评价方法，对2005~2011年上海市旅游安全度进行测定和判断。结果显示：上海市旅游安全度总体呈上升趋势波动，基本都处于安全区，存在潜在风险。科学合理的旅游安全评价为目的地旅游风险预警、风险防范及规避提供参考。
- Abstract:
- Various kinds of emergencies have happened frequently in the tourism destinations, and the uncertainty of tourism safety is becoming prominent increasingly. Tourism safety in tourism destinations are increasingly becoming the focus of widespread attention in the field of tourism safety and emergency management. On the basis of the concept of tourism safety system, combining with the connotation of tourism services and management, the safety system of tourism was divided into three subsystems, namely core subsystem, auxiliary subsystem and guarantees subsystem, and thus, the safety evaluation index system of tourism was built. In the meantime, the evaluation method of catastrophe theory was applied to measure and judge the tourism safety degree in Shanghai from 2005 to 2011. The results showed that the tourism security degrees of Shanghai overall presented a rising fluctuations trend, basically were in a safe area, existing potential risk. Scientific and reasonable evaluation is a reference for tourism risk early warning, risk prevention and avoidance.
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备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
- 博士学科点专项科研基金（20113501110002），国家旅游局面上项目（13TABG021），中国旅游研究院（研究生）优奖计划专项基金（YJKT2013003）
