|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈华群,余 娟.基于改进贝叶斯的飞行签派安全评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.019]
　CHEN Huaqun,YU Juan.Research on safety assessment of flight dispatch based on improved Bayesian[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(5):109-113.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.019]
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基于改进贝叶斯的飞行签派安全评估研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年5期
页码:
109-113
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on safety assessment of flight dispatch based on improved Bayesian
文章编号:
20140519
作者:
陈华群1; 2;  余 娟2
(1.中国民航飞行学院 空中交通管理学院，四川 广汉 618307；
2.西南交通大学 交通运输学院，四川 成都 610031 )
Author(s):
CHEN Huaqun1; 2;  YU Juan2
(1.ATM Department, Civil Aviation Flight University of China, Guanghan Sichuan 618307, China;
2. College of traffic and transportation, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China)
关键词:
飞行签派; 贝叶斯网络; 安全评估; 事故模型; 评价算法
Keywords:
flight dispatch;  Bayesian network;  safety assessment;  accident model;  estimation algorithm
分类号:
X949
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.019
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
随着航空公司机队规模和航班数量不断增加，作为运输生产核心部门之一的飞行签派工作，对生产组织协调不得力或监控跟踪不及时所引发飞行事故成为当前突出的安全问题。分析由于飞行签派工作差错导致飞行事故的原因及可能引发的各项后果，查找出诱发该类事故各项因素，运用层次分析法建立飞行签派安全评估指标体系，建立基于贝叶斯网络的影响飞行签派各因素间的关系和相互作用，提出了故障树向贝叶斯网络转化的改进方法，基于构建的飞行签派安全评估贝叶斯网络模型，给出了求解顶事件发生后果概率、底事件重要度和事故发生最小割集的算法；最后将该算法应用于实例。
Abstract:
Accompany with the number of aircrafts and flights increasing, aviation operational control (AOC) as a core department of airline becomes more and more important. Because of ineffective organizationcoordination and monitoring-following delayed in the airline operational control, it becomes an extrusive problem which has caused the resent flight accidents. Aiming at the complicated reasons of flight accidents, the relative factors inducing the accidents were found out. Analytic Hierarchy Process was used to build the safety assessment target system of airlines operational control. Based on theory of Bayesian network and Fault tree transforming, the model of safety assessment on airlines operational control was put forward. The algorithm of solving the consequence probability of top incidents, the importance of bottom incidents and the minimum path gather of accident occurrence were brought forward. At last the model and the algorithm were used to actual example.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
中国民航飞行学院科研项目（J2012-46）
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-05-31