|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]高娇娇,王 威,苏经宇,等.区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价方法[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):95-102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.017]
　GAO Jiaojiao,WANG Wei,SU Jingyu,et al.Fuzzy stochastic simulation method for comprehensive risk assessment of regional natural disaster[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(5):95-102.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.017]
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区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价方法
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年5期
页码:
95-102
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-05-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Fuzzy stochastic simulation method for comprehensive risk assessment of regional natural disaster
文章编号:
20140517
作者:
高娇娇1;  王 威1; 2;  苏经宇1; 2;  马东辉1; 2
(1.北京工业大学 抗震减灾研究所，北京 100124；
2.北京工业大学 建筑与城市规划学院，北京 100124)
Author(s):
GAO Jiaojiao1;  WANG Wei1; 2;  SU Jingyu1; 2 ;  MA Donghui1; 2
(1.Institute of Earthquake Resistance and Disaster Reduction, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China;
2. College of Architecture and Urban Planning, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China)
关键词:
自然灾害; 风险评价; 模糊数; 随机模拟方法
Keywords:
natural disaster;  risk assessment;  fuzzy number;  stochastic simulation method
分类号:
X915.5; X43;P333
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
从自然灾害危险性、社会经济易损性和区域设防等多种角度建立了区域自然灾害综合风险评价指标体系。针对典型自然灾害综合风险评价影响因素具有随机性、模糊性和数据资料不精确等多种不确定性，利用蒙特卡洛方法模拟三角模糊数，把三角模糊数及其函数之间的运算简化为普通的实数之间的运算，从而建立区域自然灾害综合风险模糊随机评价模型。研究表明，在评价结果一致的前提下以置信区间形式表示的综合风险评价结果比其他常规方法，提供的信息更加丰富，充分反映了受多种不确定性因素综合影响的区域自然灾害综合风险评价的客观实际情况，研究结果可为区域防御自然灾害与提升综合抗灾能力提供决策依据。
Abstract:
An index system of comprehensive risk assessment for regional natural disaster risk was established in terms of the risk of natural disasters, socio-economic vulnerability and regional fortification. According to many uncertainty factors such as randomness, fuzziness and the shortage and imprecision of datum information of comprehensive risk assessment for regional natural disaster risk, MonteCarlo method was presented to simulate triangular fuzzy numbers for transforming the operations of triangular fuzzy numbers and their functions into the conventional operations of real numbers, and then a comprehensive risk assessment method for regional natural disaster risk using stochastic simulation and triangular fuzzy numbers was established. The application results showed that the assessment expressed by confidence intervals can provide more reliability information than that of common evaluation methods, which can reflect practical conditions of the comprehensive risk assessment method for regional natural disaster, and can also be applied to comprehensive risk assessment problems of different disaster risk affected by many uncertainty factors.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家“十二五”科技支撑计划资助项目（2011BAK07B01、2011BAJ08B03、2011BAJ08B05）；国家自然科学基金资助项目（51208017）
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-05-31