|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李盼,樊建春,刘书杰.基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的钻井井塌事故的定量分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(1):143-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.01.024]
　LI Pan,FAN Jian chun,LIU Shu jie.Quantitative analysis of borehole collapse in drilling base on fault tree analysis and Bayesian networks[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(1):143-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.01.024]
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基于故障树与贝叶斯网络的钻井井塌事故的定量分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
10
期数:
2014年1期
页码:
143-149
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2014-01-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Quantitative analysis of borehole collapse in drilling base on fault tree analysis and Bayesian networks
作者:
李盼1;  樊建春1;  刘书杰2
（1中国石油大学〈北京〉机械与储运工程学院，北京102249；2中海油研究总院，北京100027）
Author(s):
LI Pan1;  FAN Jianchun1;  LIU Shujie2
(1College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering, China University of Petroleum, Beijing 102249, China; 2 China National Offshore Oil Corporation Research Center, Beijing100027, China)
关键词:
井塌事故; 故障树分析; 贝叶斯网络; 概率计算
Keywords:
borehole collapse;  fault tree analysis;  Bayesian networks;  probability calculation
分类号:
X928
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.01.024
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
井塌事故在钻井过程极其常见，由于钻井液、井身结构等设计不合理，以及钻井过程的误操作均会造成井塌的发生，其后果主要是造成卡钻、卡套管等事故，严重时造成井眼毁坏。为了对井塌事故进行危险性分析，采用贝叶斯网络与故障树相结合的方法，避免传统故障树方法的局限性。首先对井塌事故的所有危险因素进行辨识建立故障树，然后将故障树转化为贝叶斯网络，建立条件概率表，运用贝叶斯网络的推理能力对井塌事故进行危险性分析。对井塌事故各基本事件概率分布的计算分析结果表明，考虑事件的多态性，综合利用故障树分析法和贝叶斯网络法能有效提高井塌事故分析的有效性，推算出井塌事故概率分布更为准确。
Abstract:
Because of the incorrect design of drilling fluid and hole geometry, and faulty operation in drilling, the borehole collapse hazards in drilling are extremely common, resulting in sticking and wellbore damage. For the purpose of analyzing the hazard of borehole collapse, the method of combining BN and FTA avoided the limitation of traditional FTA. A fault tree was built first by identifying all the risk factors of borehole collapse, then it was mapped into a Bayesian network to generate a conditional probability distribution table, so as to assess the borehole collapse hazard by the inference of Bayesian network. The computing analysis on probability distribution of all the basic events in borehole collapse showed that, when different states of events are considered, the analysis quality for the hazard of borehole collapse can be improved by comprehensively using FTA and BN, and the probability distribution of borehole collapse can be calculated more accurately．

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
“十二五”国家科技重大专项子任务 (2011ZX05056-001-05)
更新日期/Last Update: 2014-01-30