|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]孙瑞山,刘〓露.中美两国民航事故发展趋势对比分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(9):154.
 SUN Rui shan,LIU Lu.Comparative analysis on accident trend of civil aviation between China and America[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(9):154.
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中美两国民航事故发展趋势对比分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
8
期数:
2012年9期
页码:
154
栏目:
出版日期:
2012-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Comparative analysis on accident trend of civil aviation between China and America
作者:
孙瑞山 刘〓露
(中国民航大学,国家空管运行安全技术重点实验室,天津 300300
Author(s):
SUN Ruishan LIU Lu
(National Key Laboratory of Air Traffic Operation Safety Technology, Civil Aviation University of China, Tianjin 300300, China)
关键词:
运输飞行重大事故率亿客公里死亡人数飞行安全
Keywords:
air transportation accident rate PFPK flight safety
分类号:
X949;V2
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了持续改进民航安全,本文对中美两国民航运输事故趋势进行了分析研究。对民航运输事故率的统计采样周期、变化规律的曲线类型进行研究,并基于5年为采样周期、滚动平均的数据建立回归分析模型。利用此模型对中美两国的运输飞行事故率和亿客公里死亡人数进行曲线拟合。最后,对比分析中美两国的事故率和亿客公里死亡人数拟合值。研究表明中美两国民航事故率遵循相似的规律发展,中国民航安全改进速度更快。依据研究结果,预测在2014年中国民航运输飞行重大事故率大约是美国的1/3、亿客公里死亡人数大约是美国的2倍,分析表明美国民航事故水平很大程度受小型运输机制约,指出随着我国大力发展支线航空,可能会带来航空事故的高发期。
Abstract:
In order to continuously improve civil aviation safety, a research was done to analyze the accident trend between China and America. The statistical sampling period and curve types of civil aviation transportation accident rate were researched firstly, and then, a regression analysis model was constructed based on the rolling average data which the sampling period was 5 years. After that, this model was used to research the fitted curves of air transportation accident rate and passenger fatality per hundred million passengerkilometers (PFPK). Finally, comparative analysis of fitted values of transportation accident rate and PFPK was made between China and America. The research showed that the trend of transportation accident rate between China and America is similar, and civil aviation safety is improved faster. According to the research results, the civil aviation transportation accident of China in 2014 is about onethird of that of America. Meanwhile, PFPK in China is about 2 times of that in America. This means that civil aviation accident level is largely influenced by small aircrafts, and at the same time, with the vigorous development of regional air transport in China, the aviation accident peak period may come soon.

参考文献/References:

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家重点基础研究发展计划(“973”计划)项目 (编号:2010CB734105)
更新日期/Last Update: 2012-10-16