基于模糊随机可靠性的边坡稳定性评价-《中国安全生产科学技术》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Stability assessment of opencast mines slope based on fuzzy stochastic reliability

Author(s):: FU Shigen; (China Academay of Safety Science and Technology, Beijing 100012,China)

Keywords:: opencast mines slope; fuzzy stochastic reliability; fuzzy point estimate ; stability assessment

摘要:: 影响边坡稳定性的因素中包含有很多的不确定性，这些不确定因素既具有随机性也具有模糊性。基于模糊分析理论，建立了模糊随机可靠性分析模型，提出了边坡模糊随机可靠性分析的点估计法，并运用该方法对一露天矿边坡稳定的的可靠性进行分析，通过对影响边坡稳定的各个力学参数进行模糊处理，然后应用统计矩点估计方法估计边坡的安全系数均值和可靠度，得出边坡的失稳概率。这种方法由于考虑到了各个力学参数的模糊性，比较符合客观实际，因而更具有实际指导意义。

Abstract:: Factors that affecting slope stability Contains lots of uncertainty factors.These uncertainties possess both randomness and fuzziness.Baesd on fuzzy theory,a novel fuzzy stochastic model for reliability analysis is proposed.A fuzzy point estimate method is presented for the reliability analysis of rock block incorporating block theory and fuzzy sets. As a typical example,it is applied to the stability analysis of a opencast mines slope.The fuzzy point estimate method provides an effective approach to solve this problem and it can reflect the real situation better because it uses fuzzybased disposal to every mechanical parameters.And then apply the statistical moments of the point estimate mehtod to estimate the mean value and reliability of the safety factor obtained the probability of slope instability.Taking into account the fuzziness of the various mechanical parameters more in line with the objective,it has more practical significance.