|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]陈卓,罗丽娜,孙柏林,等.电动自行车火灾致因模型及致因因素关联研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2026,22(2):139-145.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.02.017]
　CHEN Zhuo,LUO Lina,SUN Bolin,et al.Causation modeling of electric bicycle fires and analysis of associations among causal factors[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2026,22(2):139-145.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.02.017]
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电动自行车火灾致因模型及致因因素关联研究

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
22
期数:
2026年2期
页码:
139-145
栏目:
火灾与爆炸安全
出版日期:
2026-02-28

文章信息/Info

Title:
Causation modeling of electric bicycle fires and analysis of associations among causal factors
文章编号:
1673-193X(2026)-02-0139-07
作者:
陈卓; 罗丽娜; 孙柏林; 莫雨薇; 马秋菊; 姜金函
（1.北京市科学技术研究院城市系统工程研究所，北京 100089；
2.中国矿业大学（北京），北京 100083；
3.安全生产新型风险辨识与防控联合创新应急管理部重点实验室，北京 100012)
Author(s):
CHEN Zhuo;  LUO Li’na;  SUN Bolin;  MO Yuwei;  MA Qiuju;  JIANG Jinhan
（1.Institute of Urban Systems Enggineering,Beijing Academy of Scienceand Technology,Beijing 100089,China；
2.China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing),Beijing 100083,China；
3.Joint Innovation Key Laboratory of Ministry of Emergency Management for Emerging Risk Identification,Prevention and Controlin Safety Production,Beijing 100012,China）
关键词:
电动自行车火灾; Apriori算法; 关联规则; 致因分析
Keywords:
electric bicycle fires;  Apriori algorithm;  association rules;  causation analysis
分类号:
X951
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2026.02.017
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为预防和减少电动自行车火灾，收集2015—2025年40份电动自行车火灾事故数据，从“人的不安全行为、物的不安全状态、环境不良、管理不当”4个方面对火灾原因进行归纳分析，构建电动自行车火灾三级因素集，采用Apriori算法，通过计算支持度、置信度和提升度等指标，量化分析各致因因素之间的关联强度与规则显著性，使用Gephi软件绘制复杂网络关系图，并对高支持度、高置信度和高提升度关联规则进行深入分析，在此基础上，从人-物-环-管4个维度提出电动自行车火灾防控措施。研究结果表明：隐患排查治理不到位、电池故障、高密度停车布局等是导致电动自行车火灾事故发生的关键致因因素。研究结果可为电动自行车火灾的风险预防、事故评估及应急管理提供科学参考。
Abstract:
In order to prevent and reduce electric bicycle fires,this study collects 40 electric bicycle fire accident cases from 2015 to 2025.Fire causes are summarized and analyzed from four aspects,namely unsafe human behavior,unsafe conditions of equipment,adverse environment,and improper management.A three level factor set for electric bicycle fire causation is established.The Apriori algorithm is applied,and the association strength among causal factors and the significance of rules are quantified by calculating support,confidence,and lift.Gephi is used to visualize the complex network of relationships,and association rules with high support,high confidence,and high lift are further examined.On this basis,fire prevention and control measures for electric bicycles are proposed from the four dimensions of human,equipment,environment,and management.Results show that inadequate hazard inspection and rectification,battery faults,and high density parking layouts are key causal factors for electric bicycle fire accidents.The findings provide scientific references for risk prevention,accident assessment,and emergency management of electric bicycle fires.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2025-11-21
作者简介： 陈卓，本科，副研究员，主要研究方向为城市精细化管理，应急管理，公共安全等。
通信作者： 马秋菊，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为气体泄漏-火灾-爆炸灾害演化动力学，事故风险量化技术。
更新日期/Last Update: 2026-03-09