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[1]罗振敏,王玉玮,苏彬,等.基于马尔科夫链应急决策模型的LNG接收站泄漏事故分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(6):100-108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.06.013]
　LUO Zhenmin,WANG Yuwei,SU Bin,et al.Analysis of leakage accidents in LNG terminal based on Markov chain emergency decision-making model[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2025,21(6):100-108.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.06.013]
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基于马尔科夫链应急决策模型的LNG接收站泄漏事故分析*()

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
21
期数:
2025年6期
页码:
100-108
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2025-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis of leakage accidents in LNG terminal based on Markov chain emergency decision-making model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2025)-06-0100-09
作者:
罗振敏; 王玉玮; 苏彬; 孟子骐
（1.西安科技大学 安全科学与工程学院，陕西 西安 710054；
2.陕西省工业过程安全与应急救援工程技术研究中心，陕西 西安 710054）
Author(s):
LUO Zhenmin;  WANG Yuwei;  SU Bin;  MENG Ziqi
(1.School of Safety Science and Engineering,Xi’an University of Science and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710054,China;
2.Shaanxi Provincial Industrial Process Safety and Emergency Rescue Engineering Technology Research Center,Xi’an Shaanxi 710054,China)
关键词:
LNG泄漏事故; 情景-应对; 应急决策模型; 马尔科夫链
Keywords:
LNG leakage accident;  scenario-response;  emergency decision-making model;  Markov chain
分类号:
X932
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.06.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为根据液化天然气LNG接收站泄漏事故的发生情况做出科学、动态、高效的应急决策及应对措施，以LNG接收站作为研究对象，将LNG泄漏事故中关键的9个事件作为基本事件构建情景库，应用于马尔科夫链应急决策模型，探讨事故的动态应急决策过程，并将所建立的模型应用于事故案例。研究结果表明：马尔科夫链模型可以根据基本事件的判定等级，对下一情景等级进行预测。结合提前存储至情景数据库的所有泄漏情景仿真结果，可在该情景下制定相应的应急决策措施。经过对比预测情景和实时情景发现，所建立的模型预测基本准确，或相较于实时情景更具危险性，可以用来制定应急决策。该应急决策模型能将应急决策措施前置化，并且具有一定的应对性和针对性，使情景向理想的方向演变。研究结果可为LNG泄漏事故开展信息预测、制定科学准确的应急救援对策提供帮助。
Abstract:
In order to make scientific,dynamic and efficient emergency decisions and response measures according to the occurrence situation of leakage accidents in LNG terminals,taking the LNG terminal as the research object,9 key events in LNG leakage accident were taken as basic events to build a scenario library.It was applied to the Markov chain emergency decision-making model to discuss the dynamic emergency decision-making process of accident,and the established model was applied to the accident cases.The results show that based on the determination rank of basic event,the Markov chain model can predict the next scenario rank.Then combined with all the simulation results of leakage scenarios stored in advance to the scenario database,the emergency decision-making measures of this scenario can be made.Through comparing the predictive and real-time scenarios,it is found that the prediction results of the established model are basically accurate or more dangerous than the real-time scenario,which can be used to make emergency decision-making.The emergency decision-making model can advance the emergency decision-making measures,and has a certain response and pertinence,so that the scenario can evolve to the ideal direction.The research results can provide help for LNG leakage accidents to carry out information prediction and formulate the scientific and accurate emergency rescue countermeasures.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-09-20
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2021YFB4000905）；国家自然科学基金项目（52174200）；陕西省榆林市科技计划项目（CXY-2019-139）
作者简介： 罗振敏，博士，教授，主要研究方向为能源化工过程安全。
通信作者： 苏彬，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为工业火灾与爆炸防控。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-07-01