|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王霞,孟娟,张海军.基于DBN-GRA的非坠机民航客机火灾风险分析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2025,21(4):202-210.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.04.027]
　WANG Xia,MENG Juan,ZHANG Haijun.Analysis onfire risk of non-crash civil aircraft based on DBN-GRA[J].Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2025,21(4):202-210.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.04.027]
点击复制

基于DBN-GRA的非坠机民航客机火灾风险分析*

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
21
期数:
2025年4期
页码:
202-210
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2025-04-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis onfire risk of non-crash civil aircraft based on DBN-GRA
文章编号:
1673-193X(2025)-04-0202-09
作者:
王霞; 孟娟; 张海军
（中国民航大学 安全科学与工程学院，天津 300300）
Author(s):
WANG Xia;  MENG Juan;  ZHANG Haijun
(College of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)
关键词:
非坠机事件; 民航客机火灾; 动态贝叶斯网络; 灰色关联分析; 风险分析
Keywords:
non-crash events;  civilaircraft fire;  dynamic Bayesian network (DBN);  grey relational analysis (GRA);  risk analysis
分类号:
X949
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2025.04.027
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为降低民航客机火灾事故率，以飞行全过程及3个关键飞行阶段作为维度，采用动态贝叶斯网络模型对非坠机民航客机火灾进行风险分析。根据火灾起火燃烧的当量比及事故演化的过程，基于事故致因模型确定事件因素，构建火灾风险分析模型；收集2014—2024年民航火灾事故数据，确定基本事件的先验概率，并应用BWM法计算中间事件的条件概率；运用灰色关联分析提取各维度关联因素结合动态时序变化构建动态贝叶斯网络，进行火灾风险分析，识别关键风险因素。研究结果表明：非坠机民航客机火灾初期发展阶段时物的因素与环境因素影响最高，充分燃烧阶段时组织管理因素和货物因素影响最高；飞行关键阶段中飞机机体自身因素和组织管理因素为高风险因素。研究结果可为提高非坠机民航客机火灾风险预警与应急管理能力提供决策参考。
Abstract:
In order to reduce the fire accident rate of civil aircraft,taking the whole flight process and three key flight stages as dimensions,the dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) model was used to analyze the fire risk of non-crash civil aircraft.According to the equivalent ratio of fire combustion and the evolution process of accident,the incident factors were determined based on the accident cause model,and the fire risk analysis model was constructed.The data of civil aviation fire accidents in 2014—2024 were collected,then the prior probability of basic events was determined,and the conditional probability of intermediate events was calculated by BWM method.The grey relational analysis (GRA) was used to extract the relational factors of each dimension,and a dynamic Bayesian network was established combining with dynamic time series change to conduct the fire risk analysis and identify the key risk factors.The results show that the influence of physical factorsand environmental factors are the highest in the initial development stage of non-crash civil aircraft fire,and the influence of organizational and management factors and cargo factors are the highest in the full combustion stage.In the keyflightstages,the factors of aircraft body itself and organization and management are the high risk factors.The research results can provide decision-making reference for improving the ability of risk warning and emergency managementof the non-crash civil aircraft fires.

参考文献/References:

［1］中华人民共和国应急管理部.《推进安全生产风险专项整治 加强重点行业领域安全监管 应急管理系统人员认真学习贯彻党的二十大精神》［EB/OL］.(2022-11-03)［2025-03-19］.https://news.qq.com/rain/a/20221103A03KU600.
［2］中国民航网.《评论：始终坚持对安全隐患零容忍》［EB/OL］.(2017-12-25)［2025-03-19］.http://caacnews.com.cn/1/2/201712/t20171225_1237096.html
［3］中华人民共和国应急管理部.《“十四五”应急救援力量建设规划》［EB/OL］.(2022-06-30)［2025-03-19］.https://www.mem.gov.cn/gk/zfxxgkpt/fdzdgknr/202206/t20220630_417326.shtml
［4］新华网.日媒：与日航客机相撞的海上保安厅飞机上5人死亡［EB/OL］.(2024-01-02)［2025-03-26］.https://www.news.cn/20240102/c0a47526b5e148b59008a2620a74198a/c.html.
［5］凤四海,李枣,贺元骅.基于灰色关联法的飞机火灾事故统计分析与启示［J］.安全与环境工程,2017,24(3):138-143,149. FENG Sihai,LI Zao,HE Yuanhua.Statistic data analysis and revelation of aircraft fire accidents based on Gray Relational Method ［J］.Safety and Environmental Engineering,2017,24(3):138-143,149.
［6］杜红兵,张庆庆.民航飞行事故统计及原因分析［J］.工业安全与环保,2016,42(8):17-20. DU Hongbing,ZHANG Qingqing.Statistics and causes analysis of flight accidents ［J］.Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection,2016,42(8):17-20.
［7］WANG R,LI Y H,SUN H,et al.Multisensor-weighted fusion algorithm based on improved AHP for aircraft fire detection［J］.Complexity,2021,2021:1-9.
［8］高扬,许星.基于灰色关联理论的民航事故影响因素分析［J］.安全与环境工程,2013,20(3):102-106. GAO Yang,XU Xing.Analysis of influencing factors of civil aviation accidents based on Gray Relational Theory ［J］.Safety and Environmental Engineering,2013,20(3):102-106.
［9］WANG J,TAO Z XM YANG R,et al.A review of aircraft fire accident investigation techniques:research,process,and cases［J］.Engineering Failure Analysis,2023,153:107558.
［10］罗笛书.民用飞机客舱火灾燃烧特性及烟气蔓延规律研究［D］.成都：四川师范大学,2021.
［11］XIONG Y,DIAKOSTEFANIS M,DINESH A,et al.Numerical assessment for aircraft cargo compartment fire suppression system safety［J］.Journal of Fire Sciences，2021，39(3):240-261.
［12］YAN K,PU J Y,HOU Y.The study of randomness risk evaluation for cabin fire［M］//New Perspectives on Risk Analysis and Crisis Response,2009:630-635.
［13］LUIS J D.Modeling of an aircraft fire extinguishing process with a porous medium equation［J］.SN Applied Sciences,2020,2(12):1-20.
［14］PRECUP S A,GELLERT A,MATEI A,et al.Towards an assembly support system with dynamic Bayesian network［J］.Applied Sciences,2022,12(3):985.
［15］王准,贾旭宏.不同通风条件下飞机客舱火灾轰燃时间研究［J］.消防科学与技术,2019,38(8):1074-1077. WANG Zhun,JIA Xuhong.Study on flashover time of aircraft cabin under various ventilation conditions ［J］.Fire Science and Technology,2019,38(8):1074-1077.
［16］祁兵.基于事故致因理论的大型公共建筑疏散优化研究［D］.吉林：吉林建筑大学,2023.
［17］刘丹,罗颜声,李诗轩,等.面向飞行全过程的民航事故致因关联网络分析［J］.中国安全科学学报,2024,34(3):84-92. LIU Dan,LUO Yansheng,LI Shixuan,et al.Causes and correlation network analysis of civil aviation accidents for whole flight phases ［J］.China Safety Science Journal,2024,34(3):84-92.
［18］付帅,牛胜麒,赖正博,等.基于FTA与BN的民用飞机火灾事故风险分析［J］.郑州航空工业管理学院学报,2024,42(3):47-53. FU Shuai,NIU Shengqi,LAI Zhengbo,et al.Risk analysis of civil aircraft fire accidents based on FTA and BN［J］.Journal of Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,2024,42(3):47-53.
［19］赵铁棨,龚运息,傅爱军,等.基于灰色关联度的某畜禽车车厢多目标优化［J］.中国农机化学报,2024,45(11):131-138. ZHAO Tieqi,GONG Yunxi,FU Aijun,et al.Multi-objective optimization of a livestock and poultry vehicle carriage based on grey correlation degree ［J］.Journal of Chinese Agricultural Mechanization,2024,45(11):131-138.

相似文献/References:

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-08-17
* 基金项目： 中央高校基本科研业务费项目（3122019011）；天津市科技计划项目（21JCJQJC00040）
作者简介： 王霞，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为民航安全管理、人为因素、系统动力学等。
更新日期/Last Update: 2025-04-28