|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]熊斯捷,吕伟,汪京辉,等.基于改进元胞自动机的城市区域疏散时序规划模型研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(6):32-39.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.005]
　XIONG Sijie,LYU Wei,WANG Jinghui,et al.Research on time series planning model of urban regional evacuation based on improved cellular automata[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(6):32-39.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.005]
点击复制

基于改进元胞自动机的城市区域疏散时序规划模型研究*
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
20
期数:
2024年6期
页码:
32-39
栏目:
特邀专栏
出版日期:
2024-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on time series planning model of urban regional evacuation based on improved cellular automata
文章编号:
1673-193X(2024)-06-0035-08
作者:
熊斯捷; 吕伟; 汪京辉; 邓方蔚; 杨晓婷
（武汉理工大学 安全科学与应急管理学院，湖北 武汉 430070)
Author(s):
XIONG Sijie;  LYU Wei;  WANG Jinghui;  DENG Fangwei;  YANG Xiaoting
(School of Safety Science and Emergency Management,Wuhan University of Technology,Wuhan Hubei 430070,China)
关键词:
城市公共安全; 分阶段疏散; 元胞自动机; 规划模型
Keywords:
urban public safety;  staged evacuation;  cellular automata;  planning model
分类号:
X915.5；X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.005
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为解决灾前城市大规模人群有效疏散的难题，考虑实际路网、人口等因素对疏散的影响对传统元胞自动机疏散模型进行改进，构建以各疏散组整体疏散时间最短且不发生拥堵为目标的城市区域疏散时序规划模型，并选取武汉市某滨江地区进行疏散仿真模拟以验证突出模型的有效性与适用性。研究结果表明：提出的模型可以显著减少各疏散组的整体疏散时间和道路拥堵概率，同时得到具体的分阶段疏散方案。研究结果可为制定城市大灾巨灾的应对预案、构建灾害情景等工作提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to solve the problem of effective evacuation of large-scale urban crowds before the disaster,the traditional cellular automata evacuation model was improved by considering the influence of actual road network,population and other factors on evacuation.A time series planning model of urban regional evacuation was constructed with the goal of minimizing the overall evacuation time of each evacuation group and avoiding congestion,and a certain riverside area in Wuhan was selected for evacuation simulation to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the prominent model.The results show that the proposed model can significantly reduce the overall evacuation time and road congestion probability of each evacuation group,and obtain specific staged evacuation schemes at the same time.The research results can provide reference for the development of urban disaster response plans and the construction of disaster scenarios.

参考文献/References:

［1］中华人民共和国中央人民政府.河南郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害调查报告公布［EB/OL］.(2022-01-21)［2024-01-30］.https://www.gov.cn/xinwen/2022-01/21/content_5669723.htm.
［2］HELBING D.A mathematical model for the behavior of pedestrians［J］.Behavioral Science,1991,36(3):298-310.
［3］HELBING D,MOLNAR P.Social force model for pedestrian dynamics［J］.Physical Review E,1995,51(4):4282-4286.
［4］ZONG X L,LIU A P,WANG C Z,et al.Indoor evacuation model based on visual-guidance artificial bee colony algorithm［J］.Building Simulation,2022,15:645-658.
［5］陈长坤,童蕴贺.基于元胞自动机恐慌状态下人群疏散模型研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(6):12-17. CHEN Changkun,TONG Yunhe.Study on crowd evacuation model under panic state based on cellular automata［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(6):12-17.
［6］BURSTEDDE C,KLAUCK K,SCHADSCHNEIDE R A,et al.Simulation of pedestrian dynamics using a two-dimensional cellular automaton［J］.Physica A,2001,295:507-525.
［7］KIRCHNER A,KLüPFEL H,NISHINARI K,et al.Simulation of competitive egress behavior:comparison with aircraft evacuation data［J］.Physica A:Statistical Mechanics and its Applications,2003,324:689-697.
［8］TAKAHIRO Y,KOTA T,TORU S,et al.Flood inundation simulation using a large-scale rainfall-runoff model effects of topographic data corrections［J］.Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers,2022,78:1565-1570.
［9］WANG J H,SUN J H.Principal aspects regarding to the emergency evacuation of large-scale crowds:a brief review of literatures until 2010［J］.Procedia Engineering,2014,71:1-6.
［10］HARIS M,MAHMOOD I,BADAR M,et al.Modeling safest and optimal emergency evacuation plan for large-scale pedestrians environments［C］//2018 Winter Simulation Conference Proceedings (WSC),Gothenburg,Sweden,2018:917-928.
［11］COVA T J,JOHNSON J P.A network flow model for lane-based evacuation routing［J］.Transportation Research Part A,2003,37:579-604.
［12］吕伟,汪京辉,房志明,等.基于介观元胞自动机的城市区域人员疏散模拟方法［J］.物理学报,2021,70(10):82-90. LYU Wei,WANG Jinghui,FANG Zhiming,et al.Simulation method of urban evacuation based on mesoscopic cellular automata［J］.ActaPhysicaSinica,2021,70(10):82-90.
［13］CHIEN S,KORIKANTHIMATH V.Analysis and modeling of simultaneous and staged emergency evacuations［J］.Journal of Transportation Engineering,2007,133:190-197.
［14］LI X,HUANG B,LIU Z J,et al.A novel method for planning a staged evacuation［J］.Journal of Systems Science and Complexity,2012,25(6):1093-1107.
［15］LI X,LI Q P,CLARAMUNT C.A time-extended network model for staged evacuation planning［J］.Safety Science,2018,108:225-236.
［16］LIU Y,LAI X R,CHANG G L.Cell-based network optimization model for staged evacuation planning under emergencies［J］.Network Modeling,2006,1964:127-135.
［17］中国社区发展协会.武汉市社区地图［EB/OL］.［2024-01-30］.http://www.cncn.org.cn/map/prov.php?pid=17&cid=267.
［18］OHTOMO S,KIMURA R,KATAWA Y,et al.The determinants of residents’ evacuation behavior in the torrential rain in western Japan in 2018:examination of survey data of victims in okayama prefecture［J］.Journal of Disaster Research,2020,15:1011-1024.

相似文献/References:

[1]赵明,陈求稳.城市重大危险源区域风险评价方法研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(9):158.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.027]
　ZHAO Ming,CHEN Qiu-wen.Study on method of regional risk assessment for urban major hazard[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(6):158.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.09.027]
[2]司鹄,贾文梅.城市公共安全风险评估指标敏感性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):71.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.012]
　SI Hu,JIA Wen-mei.Analysis on sensitivity of indexes for risk assessment on urban public safety[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(6):71.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.012]
[3]杨瑞含,周科平.基于群组决策和模糊层次分析法的城市公共安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(6):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.06.023]
　YANG Rui-han,ZHOU Ke-ping.Evaluation of urban public safety based on group decision-making and fuzzy analytic hierarchy process[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(6):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.06.023]
[4]李从东,李文博,曹策俊,等.基于新闻搜索的城市公共安全及其风险热点主题分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(8):73.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.08.012]
　LI Congdong,LI Wenbo,CAO Cejun,et al.Analysis on hotspots subjects of urban public safety and its risk based on news search[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(6):73.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.08.012]
[5]赵海丹,杨保华.基于自适应灰色面板聚类的城市公共安全风险测度*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(1):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.01.024]
　ZHAO Haidan,YANG Baohua.Urban public safety risk measurement based on adaptive grey panel clustering[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(6):162.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.01.024]
[6]吴洁,邢志祥,康青春,等.城市突发事件应急能力评估研究进展*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(6):48.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.06.007]
　WU Jie,XING Zhixiang,KANG Qingchun,et al.Research progress on assessment of urban emergency capability[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(6):48.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.06.007]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-04-02
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（52072286）
作者简介： 熊斯捷，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为人员疏散。
通信作者： 吕伟，博士，教授，主要研究方向为应急资源与人员安全保障与交通流及行人动力学。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-06-25