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[1]谷甜甜,马岚,刘旭,等.基于BT-BN的城市老旧社区安全风险评价研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(11):166-172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.11.023]
　GU Tiantian,MA Lan,LIU Xu,et al.Study on safety risk assessment of urban old communities based on BT-BN[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(11):166-172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.11.023]
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基于BT-BN的城市老旧社区安全风险评价研究*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
19
期数:
2023年11期
页码:
166-172
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2023-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on safety risk assessment of urban old communities based on BT-BN
文章编号:
1673-193X(2023)-11-0166-07
作者:
谷甜甜; 马岚; 刘旭; 郝恩扬
（中国矿业大学 力学与土木工程学院，江苏 徐州 221116）
Author(s):
GU Tiantian;  MA Lan;  LIU Xu;  HAO Enyang
(School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering,China University of Mining and Technology,Xuzhou Jiangsu 221116,China)
关键词:
城市老旧社区; 安全风险评价; Bow-tie模型; 贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
urban old communities;  safety risk assessment;  Bow-tie model (BT);  Bayesian network (BN)
分类号:
X915.2
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.11.023
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为更精准评价城市老旧社区安全风险，提出1种基于Bow-tie模型（BT）和贝叶斯网络（BN）的城市老旧社区安全风险评价方法。首先，基于事故致因理论，结合BT模型构建出包含人、物、环境3个维度的城市老旧社区安全风险评价指标体系；然后，构建基于BN的城市老旧社区安全风险评价模型，利用BN方法进行风险测度，得到城市老旧社区安全风险等级；最后，将BT-BN模型应用于深圳市Y社区安全风险评价中以验证该模型的适用性和可行性。研究结果表明：深圳市Y社区安全风险总体等级为低风险，通过BN反向推理得出Y社区的个人不安全行为、社区基础设施脆弱性、社区周边设施危险性为高风险因素；该模型在社区安全风险分析方面具备可行性，与传统社区安全风险评价相比，该方法兼具准确度高与应用性强等优点。研究结果可为城市老旧社区安全风险防范提供一定参考。
Abstract:
In order to assess the safety risk of urban old communities more accurately,a safety risk assessment method of urban old communities based on Bow-tie model (BT) and Bayesian network (BN) was proposed.Based on the accident causation theory,combined with the BT model,an index system for the safety risk assessment of urban old communities was constructed,which contained three dimensions: human,object,and environment.Then,a safety risk assessment model of urban old communities based on BN was constructed,and the risk measurement was conducted by using BN method to obtain the safety risk level of old urban communities.Finally,the suitability and reliability of the model were verified by applying the BT-TN model in the safety risk assessment of Y community in Shenzhen.The results showed that the level of safety risk of Y old community was low and the individual unsafe behaviors,vulnerability of community infrastructure and dangers of community peripheral facilities were high-risk factors through the BN backward reasoning.The model is feasible in community safety risk analysis,and compared with traditional community safety risk assessment,this method has the advantages of high accuracy and strong applicability.The research results can provide some reference for the safety risk prevention of urban old communities.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2023-06-01
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（72104233）
作者简介： 谷甜甜，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为城市社区安全风险管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2023-12-06