[1]曹博阳.基于复杂网络的民航维修不安全事件风险因素分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2023,19(8):143-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.08.021]
CAO Boyang.Analysis on risk factors of unsafe events in civil aviation maintenance based on complex network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(8):143-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.08.021]
点击复制
基于复杂网络的民航维修不安全事件风险因素分析
CAO Boyang.Analysis on risk factors of unsafe events in civil aviation maintenance based on complex network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2023,19(8):143-149.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2023.08.021]
《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]
- 卷:
- 19
- 期数:
- 2023年8期
- 页码:
- 143-149
- 栏目:
- 职业安全卫生管理与技术
- 出版日期:
- 2023-08-31
文章信息/Info
- Title:
- Analysis on risk factors of unsafe events in civil aviation maintenance based on complex network
- 文章编号:
- 1673-193X(2023)-08-0143-07
- Keywords:
- civil aviation maintenance; unsafe event; complex network; risk factor
- 分类号:
- X949
- 文献标志码:
- A
- 摘要:
- 为进一步分析民航维修单位不安全事件风险因素，采用复杂网络方法，以我国国内某维修单位2012—2021年间共600件不安全事件为数据基础，构建包含75个节点349条边的有向加权网络，分析得到节点度值、介数值、聚类系数值；采用Random、ID、IB策略，通过移除效果得到主要风险因素。研究结果表明：构建的民航维修单位不安全事件有向加权网络的网络效率Enet为0.068，连通性一般，说明不安全事件由多个诱因导致，发生的概率较高的（即度值较大的）不安全事件包括部件损伤、零部件松脱、错装、损伤漏检等；介数值从大到小排名前10的诱因节点（偏离工卡手册施工、未落实工作程序要求等）是重要风险因素，且上述因素多发生于维修实施阶段。研究结果将不安全事件发生的因果关系可视化呈现，可较为直观地识别各类风险因素，从而对分析和控制民航维修过程中不安全事件风险因素提供一定参考。
- Abstract:
- In order to analysis the risk factors of unsafe events in the civil aviation maintenance enterprises,a directed weighted network containing 75 nodes and 349 edges was constructed by using the complex network method with 600 unsafe events in a domestic maintenance enterprise in decade as data.The degree values,betweenness values and clustering coefficient values of nodes were analyzed,and the important risk factors were obtained through the removal effect by using the Random,ID and IB strategies.The results show that the network efficiency Enet is 0.068,the connectivity is common,which illustrates that the unsafe events are caused by multiple incentives.The events with larger degree value are the component damage,loose parts,misassembly and missing damage detection.The incentive nodes with top 10 betweenness value from large to small (such as construction deviating from work card manual,failing to implement work procedure requirements,etc.) are the important risk factors.Through the statistics on the propagation path of important factors,it is concluded that the unsafe events mostly occur in the maintenance implementation stage.The research results visualize the causal relationship of unsafe events,which can more intuitively identify various risk factors,so as to provide some reference for analyzing and controlling the risk factors of unsafe events in civil aviation maintenance.
参考文献/References:
［1］中国民用航空局.2020年民航行业发展统计公报［EB/OL］.（2021-06-10）［2022-12-01］.ｈｔｔｐ：／／ｗｗｗ.ｃａａｃ.ｇｏｖ.ｃｎ／ＸＸＧＫ／ＸＸＧＫ／ＴＪＳＪ／202106/t20210610_207915.html.
［2］中国民用航空局.2021年民航行业发展统计公报［EB/OL］.(2022-05-18)［2022-12-01］.http://www.caac.gov.cn/XXGK/XXGK/TJSJ/202205/t20220518_213297.html.
［3］杨海涛,陈新锋,张雷.2021年中国民航维修系统资源及行业发展报告［J］.航空维修工程,2022(9):27-30.
YANG Haitao,CHEN Xinfeng,ZHANG Lei.China civil aviation maintenance system resourcesand industry development analysisreport ［J］.Aviation Maintenance & Engineering,2022(9):27-30.
［4］中国民用航空局.民用航空安全管理规定：CCAR-398［S］.北京：中国民用航空局，2018.
［5］HAWKINS F H，ORLADY H W.Human aactors in alight［M］.England: Avebury Technical,1993.
［6］JAMES R.Human error［M］.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990.
［7］VLADIMIR P.MEDA and its use in data collecting and evaluating ［J］.Faculty of Transportation Sciences,2015,15(1):5-8.
［8］凡勇.层次分析法在飞机维修不安全事件影响因素评价中的应用［J］.航空维修与工程,2012 (1):91-93.
FAN Yong.Evaluation of unsafe incidents in fluence facts in aircraft maintenance based on analytic hierarchy process［J］.Aviation Maintenance & Engineering,2012(1):91-93.
［9］张晓权,曹钧,于露.机务维修风险管理研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):166-170.
ZHANG Xiaoquan,CAO Jun,YU lu.Risk management of aviation maintenance［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(4):166-170.
［10］陈勇刚,熊升华,贺强,等.民航机务维修不安全事件N-K风险耦合分析［J］.中国安全科学学报,2018,28(2):104-109.
CHEN Yonggang,XIONG Shenghua,HE Qiang,et al.N-K model based analysis of risk coupling in civil aviation maintenance unsafe events［J］.China Safety Science Journal,2018,28 (2):104-109.
［11］张明洁,王华伟,付强,等.面向维修差错的民航不安全事件风险分析［J］.武汉理工大学学（信息与管理工程版),2018,40(4):376-382.
ZHANG Mingjie,WANG Huawei,FU Qiang,et al.Risk analysis of civil aviation unsafeevents for maintenance error［J］.Journal of Wuhan University of Technology:Information and Management,2018,40(4):376-382.
［12］车畅畅,王华伟,倪晓梅.基于结构贝叶斯方程模型的航空维修差错人为因素分析［J］.人类工效学,2018,24(5):11-16.
CHE Changchang，WANG Huawei,NI Xiaomei.Human factors analysis of aviation maintenance errors based on structural bayesian equation model［J］.Chinese Journal of Ergonomics,2018,24(5):11-16.
［13］谭鑫,黄泽媛.基于ISM和DEMATE航空维修不安全事件诱因研究［J］.中国民航飞行报,2020,31(3):9-13.
TAN Xin,HUANG Zeyuan.Research on incentives of unsafe aviation maintenance eventsbased on ISM and DEMATEL［J］.Aviation Flight University of China,2020,31(3):9-13.
［14］谭鑫,郭豫桐,张凡,等.基于卡方检验的航空维修不安全事件致因分析［J］.航空计算技术,2021,51(6):51-54.
TAN Xin,GUO Yutong,ZHANG Fan,et al.Research on influence of human factors on unsafe aviation maintenance incidents ［J］.Aeronautical Computing Technique,2021,51(6):51-54.
［15］麻鹰,王瑞.基于灰狼算法的民航维修人为差错评价模型［J］.计算机技术与发展,2022,32(1)：30-34.
MA Ying,WANG Rui.Human error evaluation model of civil aviation maintenance based on gray wolf optimization［J］.Computer Technology and Development,2022,32(1):30-34.
［16］郭静.基于知识图谱的航空安全事件关联分析方法研究［D］.天津:中国民航大学,2020.
［17］刘俊杰,赵永正,张丽娟.基于知识地图的民用航空安全信息事件分析［J］安全与环境学报,2018,18(2):640-645.
LIU Junjie,ZHAO Yongzheng,ZHANG Lijuan.Analysis of the civil aviation safety information causing events based on the knowledge map analysis method［J］.Journal of Safety and Environment,2018,18(2):640-645.
［18］卜湛,曹杰,李慧嘉.复杂网络与大数据分析［M］.北京:清华大学出版社,2019.
［19］中国民用航空局.航空器适航与维修相关的信息报告和调查:AC-120-FS-060 R2［S］.北京：中国民用航空局,2020.
［20］中国民用航空局.航空人员的维修差错管理:AC-121-007［S］.北京：中国民用航空局,2002.
［21］中国民用航空局.事件样例:AC-396-08 R2［S］.北京:中国民用航空局,2020.
相似文献/References:
[1]王永刚,左笑颖,邢东江.机场原因航空器受损事件防控风险评价*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(10):165.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.10.026]
WANG Yonggang,ZUO Xiaoying,XING Dongjiang.Risk evaluation on prevention and control of aircraft damage events owing to airport reason[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(8):165.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.10.026]
[2]张洪海,石宗北,李一可,等.基于结构主题模型的民航管制不安全事件主题识别*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(11):163.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.11.021]
ZHANG Honghai,SHI Zongbei,LI Yike,et al.Topic identification of air traffic control unsafe events based on structural topic model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(8):163.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.11.021]
备注/Memo
- 备注/Memo:
-
收稿日期： 2022-12-31
作者简介： 曹博阳，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为民航维修安全管理。
