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[1]朱清华,胡甚平,田力,等.基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(6):180-186.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.029]
　ZHU Qinghua,HU Shenping,TIAN Li,et al.Risk reasoning on navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on two-dimensional gray cloud model[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(6):180-186.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.029]
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基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年6期
页码:
180-186
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-06-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk reasoning on navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on two-dimensional gray cloud model
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-06-0180-07
作者:
朱清华; 胡甚平; 田力; 李文晶
（上海海事大学 商船学院，上海 201306）
Author(s):
ZHU Qinghua;  HU Shenping;  TIAN Li;  LI Wenjing
(Merchant Marine College,Shanghai Maritime University,Shanghai 201306,China)
关键词:
LNG动力船; 二维灰云模型; 云推理; 风险评估
Keywords:
LNG-fueled ship;  two-dimensional gray cloud model;  cloud reasoning;  risk assessment
分类号:
X945
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.029
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
针对风险多维属性问题及船舶航行多种风险表现，提出基于二维灰云模型的LNG动力船航行过程风险推理方法。针对LNG使用及船舶航行2种作业方式，采用系统方法识别安全风险影响因素体系，确定2种作业方式下各风险体系指标变化权重，描述LNG动力船航行过程中LNG使用和船舶航行发生事故概率及后果；通过引入云模型，综合计算2种作业方式下概率及后果组合风险，并采用灰云推理2种作业方式同时存在时LNG动力船航行过程风险。结果表明：LNG动力船航行过程中LNG使用和船舶航行风险耦合，风险程度受控；二维灰云模型可有效分析多维属性下风险评估问题，以及不同作业下风险耦合作用。研究结果可为船舶航行过程风险定量评估提供依据。
Abstract:
Aiming at the problem of multi-dimensional attributes of risk and the performance when facing multiple risks during the ship navigation,a risk reasoning method for the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship based on the two-dimensional gray cloud model was proposed.Firstly,aiming at two operation modes of LNG usage and ship navigation during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship,the systematic method was adopted to identify the influencing factor system forming the safety risk,then the change weights of indexes under each risk system under the two modes were determined,and the probabilities and consequences of LNG and ship accidents during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship were described.Secondly,the cloud model was introduced to comprehensively calculate the combined risk of probability and consequence under the two operating tasks.Finally,the gray cloud reasoning rules were used to reason the risk in the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship when the two operating modes coexisted.The data application showed that the risks of LNG usage and ship navigation during the navigation process of LNG-fueled ship were coupled,and the risk degree was controlled.The two-dimensional gray cloud model can effectively analyze the risk assessment problem under the multi-dimensional attributes,and can also analyze the risk coupling effect under different operations.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2021-03-11
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2019YFB1600602）；上海市2020年度“科技创新行动计划”软科学重点项目（20692108700）
作者简介： 朱清华，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为交通信息工程及控制。
通信作者： 胡甚平，博士，教授，主要研究方向为载运工具运用工程，安全工程，风险管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-07-07