|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李仕林,饶佳豪,李蕊,等.户外端子箱操作人因可靠性及其风险评价*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(3):143-148.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.022]
　LI Shilin,RAO Jiahao,LI Rui,et al.Human reliability and risk assessment of outdoor terminal box operation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(3):143-148.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.022]
点击复制

户外端子箱操作人因可靠性及其风险评价*
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年3期
页码:
143-148
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Human reliability and risk assessment of outdoor terminal box operation
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-03-0143-06
作者:
李仕林; 饶佳豪; 李蕊; 陈永青; 张崇亮; 田猛
（1.云南电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院,云南 昆明 650200；
2.武汉大学 电子信息学院,湖北 武汉 430072;
3.云南电网有限责任公司 昆明供电局,云南 昆明 650200;
4.云南电网有限责任公司 德宏供电局,云南 德宏 678400;
5.云南电网有限责任公司 丽江供电局,云南 丽江 674100）
Author(s):
LI Shilin;  RAO Jiahao;  LI Rui;  CHEN Yongqing;  ZHANG Chongliang;  TIAN Meng
(1.Electric Power Research Institute of Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming Yunnan 650200,China;
2.Electronic Information School,Wuhan University,Wuhan Hubei 430072,China;
3.Kunming Power Supply Bureau,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Kunming Yunnan 650200,China;
4.Dehong Power Supply Bureau,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Dehong Yunnan 678400,China;
5.Lijiang Power Supply Bureau,Yunnan Power Grid Co.,Ltd.,Lijiang Yunnan 674100,China)
关键词:
端子箱; 人因可靠性; 成功似然指数; 比例故障模型; 风险评价
Keywords:
terminal box;  human reliability;  success likelihood index;  proportional Hazard model;  risk assessment
分类号:
X913
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.022
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为正确评价人为因素对户外端子箱失效的影响，利用CREAM(Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method)模型的共同绩效条件分析端子箱操作过程中人的行为机理以及行为可靠性因素；应用SLIM(Success Likelihood Index Method)模型计算人为失误概率，并采用比例故障模型计算户外端子箱自身的故障率；以某断路器端子箱为例进行验证。结果表明：研究案例的人为失误概率为1.56%，设备故障率为0.84%，系统的风险值为10.7%，系统的风险等级为3；从概率的角度说明事故发生原因中人为因素的影响更大。因此，从行为可靠性影响因素层面对人为失误概率进行调控，可使户外端子箱操作人因可靠性得到提高，系统的风险等级随之降低。
Abstract:
In order to correctly assess the influence of human factors on the failure of outdoor terminal box,the common performance conditions of the CREAM (Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis Method) model was used to analyze the human behavior mechanism and behavioral reliability factors of the terminal box operation process.Moreover,the SLIM (Success Likelihood Index Method) model was used to calculate the probability of human error,and the proportional hazard model was used to calculate the own failure rate of outdoor terminal box.A circuit breaker terminal box was taken as an example to conduct the verification.The results showed that the human error probability of the case was 1.56%,the device failure rate was 0.84%,the risk value of system was 10.7%,and the risk level of system was 3.From the perspective of probability,the influence of human factors were greater among the causes of accidents.Hence,adjusting the probability of human error from the level of behavioral reliability influencing factors can improve the human reliability of outdoor terminal box operation,thus reduce the risk level of system.

参考文献/References:

［1］周强强,李津.变电站智能端子箱防凝露控制系统的研究与应用［J］.广东电力,2013,26(8):73-77. ZHOU Qiangqiang,LI Jin.Study and application of anti-condensation control system of intelligent terminal box in substation［J］.Guangdong Electric Power,2013,26(8):73-77.
［2］郑星星,李金安,宋述波,等.换流站户外端子箱防潮措施改进及应用［J］.电工技术,2018(15):125-128,131. ZHENG Xingxing,LI Jinan,SONG Shubo,et al.Improvement and application of moisture-proof measures for outdoor terminal box in converter station［J］.Electric Engineering,2018(15):125-128,131.
［3］张丹阳,林昂,韦浩洋.户外端子箱的防护措施及其设计规范［J］.电气开关,2016,54(2):7-10. ZHANG Danyang,LIN Ang,WEI Haoyang.Protection measures of outdoor terminal box and its design specification［J］.Electric Switchgear,2016,54(2):7-10.
［4］李宝锋,宋喜平,刘涛,等.一种防小动物防潮户外端子箱设计与制作［J］.通讯世界,2018(3):214-215. LI Baofeng,SONG Xiping,LIU Tao,et al.Design of a wetproof outdoor terminal box against beastie［J］.Telecom World,2018(3):214-215.
［5］许立彬,高源,高伟.基于WSN及半导体制冷的端子箱防潮控温装置研制［J］.电气技术,2017(12):46-52. XU Libin,GAO Yuan,GAO Wei.Design of temperature-controlling and moisture-proof device for terminal box based on WSN and semiconductor refrigeration［J］.Electrical Engineering,2017(12):46-52.
［6］ABBOTT W H.Materials,environment,motion,and electrical contact failure mechanisms.Electrical Contacts［C］//Proceedings of the Thirty Fifth Meeting of the IEEE Holm Conference on Electrical Contacts.IEEE,2002:3-11.
［7］夏远志.电连接器鱼眼端子插拔力及可靠性研究［J］.失效分析与预防,2019,14(5):289-293. XIA Yuanzhi.Plugging force and reliability of fish-eye-hole compliant pin of electrical connector［J］.Failure Analysis and Prevention,2019,14(5):289-293.
［8］林雪燕,吴青艳.常用连接器镀层材料的微动接触性能综述［J］.机电元件,2016,36(6):45-51. LIN Xueyan,WU Qingyan.Review of fretting contact characteristics for coating material of common connector［J］.Electromechanical Components,2016,36(6):45-51.
［9］杜永英,孙志礼,吕春梅.JF系列某型电连接器组件端子可靠性研究［J］.机械与电子,2015(9):11-15. DU Yongying,SUN Zhili,LYU Chunmei.Reliability study on terminal contact parts of electrical connector of JF series［J］.Machinery & Electronics,2015(9):11-15.
［10］廖斌,杨琴,鲁茂,等.基于CREAM方法的人因失效概率预测模型研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(7):46-50. LIAO Bin,YANG Qin,LU Mao,et al.Study on prediction model of human factor failure probability based on CREAM［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2012,8(7):46-50.
［11］裴晶晶,张阿丽.制药企业人因可靠性评价指标体系的设计研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(12):165-170. PEI Jingjing,ZHANG Ali.Research on index system for human reliability assessment of pharmaceutical company［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2013,9(12):165-170.
［12］Erik.Cognitive reliability and error analysis method:CREAM / 1st ed［M］.Elsevier,1998.
［13］VESTRUCCI P.The logistic model for assessing human error probabilities using the SLIM method［J］.Reliability Engineering & System Safety,1988,21(3):189-196.
［14］黄宇,蒋猛,张简炼,等.计及人因可靠性的变电站自动化系统失效风险评估［J］.发电技术,2019,40(5):448-454. HUANG Yu,JIANG Meng,ZHANG Jianlian,et al.Risk assessment of substation automation system failure considering human reliability［J］.Power Generation Technology,2019,40(5):448-454.
［15］马仲能,钟立华,卢锴,等.基于电力设备全寿命周期成本最优的检修策略研究［J］.电力系统保护与控制,2011,39(16):34-39. MA Zhongneng,ZHONG Lihua,LU Kai,et al.Study on the maintenance strategy of power equipment based on the optimal life cycle cost［J］.Power System Protection and Control,2011,39(16):34-39.
［16］COX D R.Regression models and life-tables［J］.Journal of the Royal Statistical Society:Series B(Methodological),1972:187-220.
［17］暴英凯,王逸飞,文云峰,等.考虑人为因素的设备可靠度评估及定检周期决策［J］.电网技术,2015,39(9):2546-2552. BAO Yingkai,WANG Yifei,WEN Yunfeng,et al.Equipment reliability evaluation and maintenance period decision considering the impact of human factors［J］.Power System Technology,2015,39(9):2546-2552.
［18］郭创新,俞斌,郭嘉,等.基于IEC 61850的变电站自动化系统安全风险评估［J］.中国电机工程学报,2014,34(4):685-694. GUO Chuangxin,YU Bin,GUO Jia,et al.Security risk assessment of the IEC 61850-based substation automation system［J］.Proceedings of the CSEE,2014,34(4):685-694.

相似文献/References:

[1]张峤,邓贵仕.煤矿作业人员人因可靠性的径向基神经网络评价模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(5):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.05.022]
　ZHANG Qiao,DENG Gui-shi.Study on evaluation model for human reliability of coalmine workers based on RBF neutral network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(3):142.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.05.022]
[2]廖斌,吕思思,冯海芹.基于结构方程模型的认知性VDT作业过程解析*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(6):154.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.025]
　LIAO Bin,LYU Sisi,FENG Haiqin.Process analysis of cognitive VDT operation based on structural equation modeling[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(3):154.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.06.025]
[3]汪洋,贺宜聪,段文杰,等.水下人-机协同搜救作业人因可靠性分析研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(6):67.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.009]
　WANG Yang,HE Yicong,DUAN Wenjie,et al.Research on human reliability analysis of underwater man-machine cooperative search and rescue operation[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(3):67.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.06.009]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-06-01
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目(51707135)；云南电网有限责任公司科技项目(YNKJXM20190041)
作者简介： 李仕林，硕士，高级工程师，主要研究方向为电力系统本质安全。
通信作者： 饶佳豪，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为电力系统可靠性。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-04-13