|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]徐鲁帅,凌晓,马娟娟,等.基于DE-BPNN模型的含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(3):91-96.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.014]
　XU Lushuai,LING Xiao,MA Juanjuan,et al.Prediction on failure pressure of pipeline containing corrosion defects based on DE-BPNN[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(3):91-96.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.014]
点击复制

基于DE-BPNN模型的含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测*
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年3期
页码:
91-96
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction on failure pressure of pipeline containing corrosion defects based on DE-BPNN
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-03-0091-06
作者:
徐鲁帅; 凌晓; 马娟娟; 马贺清; 付小华
（1.兰州理工大学 石油化工学院，甘肃 兰州 730050；
2.兰州理工大学 理学院，甘肃 兰州 730050）
Author(s):
XU Lushuai;  LING Xiao;  MA Juanjuan;  MA Heqing;  FU Xiaohua
(1.College of Petroleum and Chemical Engineering,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou Gansu 730050,China;
2.College of Sciences,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou Gansu 730050,China)
关键词:
腐蚀缺陷; 管道; 失效压力预测; 机器学习; BP神经网络; 差分进化算法
Keywords:
corrosion defect;  pipeline;  failure pressure prediction;  machine learning;  BP neural network;  differential evolutionary algorithm
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.014
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提升含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测精度，准确把控管道状态，建立基于DE-BPNN的含腐蚀缺陷管道失效压力预测模型，有效避免BPNN模型陷入局部最优问题，提升预测精度。基于61组管道爆破实验数据，分别用DE-BPNN与BPNN模型进行仿真计算。结果表明：DE-BPNN预测结果平均相对误差为3.26%，R2为0.985 85，预测精度较BPNN模型有明显提升。应用DE-BPNN模型预测含腐蚀缺陷的管道失效压力可为长输管道运输调配和检维修提供决策支持。
Abstract:
To improve the prediction accuracy of the failure pressure of pipeline containing corrosion defects,and accurately control the pipeline state,a failure pressure prediction model for the pipeline with corrosion defects based on DE-BPNN was established.DE performed an optimized search on the initial weights and thresholds of the BPNN,which effectively avoided the problem of BPNN model falling into the local optimum,thus improved its prediction accuracy.Taking 61 sets of pipeline blasting test data as example,the DE-BPNN and BPNN models were used to perform the simulation calculation in Matlab respectively.The results showed that the average relative error of DE-BPNN prediction results was only 3.26%,with R2 of 0.985 85,and the prediction accuracy was significantly improved comparing with the BPNN model.The application of DE-BPNN model to predict the failure pressure of pipelines containing corrosion defects can provide decision support for the transportation deployment,inspection and maintenance of long-distance pipelines.

参考文献/References:

［1］高鹏,高振宇,王峰,等.2018年中国油气管道建设新进展［J］.国际石油经济,2019,27(3):62-67. GAO Peng,GAO Zhenyu,WANG Feng,et al.New progress in China’s oil and gas pipeline construction in 2018［J］.International Petroleum Economics,2019,27(3):62-67.
［2］魏沁汝,姚安林.基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):168-173. WEI Qinru,YAO Anlin.Analysis on consequences of major accidents in oil pipeline based on domino effect［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2014,10(11):168-173.
［3］李沧,徐鲁帅,孙宝财,等.基于改进Bow-tie模型的动力管道风险分析［J］.化工机械,2019,46(5):491-494. LI Cang,XU Lushuai,SUN Baocai,et al.Power pipeline risk analysis based on improved Bow-tie Model［J］.Chemical Engineering & Machinery,2019,46(5):491-494.
［4］单克,帅健,杨光,等.美国油气管道基本失效概率评估方法及启示［J］.油气储运,2020,39(5):530-535. SHAN Ke,SHUAI Jian,YANG Guang,et al.Evaluation method for basic failure probability of oil and gas pipeline based on accident statistics in the United States and enlightenments［J］.Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation,2020,39(5):530-535.
［5］CHIO L,ZHOU W X.Statistical analyses of incidents on onshore gas transmission pipelines based on PHMSA database［J］.International Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping,2016,145:29-40.
［6］张英,吕佳慧,王卫泽,等.失效数据库的建立和近年国内失效案例的统计分析［J］.金属热处理,2019,44(S1):668-675. ZHANG Ying,LYU Jiahui,WANG Weize,et al.Establishment of failure database and statistical analysis of domestic failure cases based in recent years［J］.Heat Treatment of Metals,2019,44(S1):668-675.
［7］ASME B31G-2009.Manual for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines［S］.New York:American Society of Mechanical Engineers,2009.
［8］KIEFNER J F,VIETH P H.A Modified criterion for evaluation the remaining strength of corroded pipe ［C］//Final Report on Project PR3-805 to the Pipeline Research Committee of the American Gas Association,1989.
［9］DENNY R,STEPHENS B N.Development of alternative criterion for residual strength of corrosion defects in moderate-to-high-toughness pipe ［C］//Battelle Energy Products Division,505 King Ave Columbus,Ohio 43201-2693.In:2000 international pipeline conference,vol.2.ASME 2000.
［10］CSA Z662-07.Limit state equation for burst of large leaks and rupture for corrosion defect ［S］.Canada:Canadian Standards Association,2007,554-555.
［11］NETTO T A,FERRAZ U S,ESTEFAN S F.The effect of corrosion defect on the burst pressure of the pipeline［J］.Journal of Constructional Steel Research 2005(61):185-204.
［12］崔铭伟,曹学文,封子艳,等.局部腐蚀油气管道失效压力计算方法［J］.中国石油大学学报(自然科学版),2013,37(6):123-128. CUI Mingwei,CAO Xuewen,FENG Ziyan,et al.Calculation method of oil-gas pipeline failure pressure with localized corrosion［J］.Journal of China University of Petroleum(Edition of Natural Science),2013,37(6):123-128.
［13］MA B,SHUAI J,LIU D,et al.Assessment on failure pressure of high strength pipeline with corrosion defects［J］.Engineering Failure Analysis,2013,32:209-219.
［14］THIBANKUMAR A,SARACANAN K,MARK O.Finite element analyses of corroded pipeline with single defect subjected to internal pressure and axial compressive stress［J］.Marine Structures,2020,72:102746.
［15］凌晓,徐鲁帅,梁瑞,等.基于改进PSO-BPNN的输油管道内腐蚀速率研究［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(10):63-68. LING Xiao,XU Lushuai,LIANG Rui,et al.Study on internal corrosion rate of oil pipeline based on improved PSO-BPNN［J］.Journal of Safety Science and Technology,2019,15(10):63-68.
［16］HORNIK K,STINCHCOMBE M,WHITE H.Multilayer feedforward networks are universal approximators［J］.Neural Networks,1989,2(5):359-366.
［17］LATORRE A,KWONG M T,JULIAN A,et al.Model calibration using a parallel differential evolution algorithm in computational neuroscience:simulation of stretch induced nerve deficit［J］.Journal of Computational Ence,2019,39:101053.
［18］GAO J,YANG P,LI X,et al.Analytical prediction of failure pressure for pipeline with long corrosion defect［J］.Ocean Engineering,2019,191:106497.
［19］蔡荣辉,崔雨轩,薛培静.三层BP神经网络隐层节点数确定方法探究［J］.电脑与信息技术,2017,25(5):29-33. CAI Ronghui,CUI Yuxuan,XUE Peijing.Research on the methods of determining the number of hidden nodes in three-layer BP neural network［J］.Computer and Information Technology,2017,25(5):29-33.

相似文献/References:

[1]程浩力,李睿,刘德俊.管道燃气爆炸特性实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2010,6(4):23.
　CHENG Hao-li,LI Rui,LIU De-jun.Experimental study on the explosion characteristic of combustible gas in pipelines[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2010,6(3):23.
[2]陈升国,张延松,刘 建,等.管道内天然气爆炸火焰及压力波传播规律实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(10):43.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.008]
　CHEN Sheng guo,ZHANG Yan song,LIU Jian,et al.Research on the flame and pressure wave propagation laws of gas explosion in pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(3):43.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.10.008]
[3]石杰红,许巧祥,龚敏,等.高压燃气管道临近爆破施工安全性及方案研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):119.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.020]
　SHI Jie-hong,XU Qiao-xiang,GONG Min,et al.Study on safety and plan of blasting work near high pressure gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(3):119.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.020]
[4]李翔,王辉.成套装置动态风险管理专家系统[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(8):192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.032]
　LI Xiang,WANG Hui.An expert system for dynamic risk-management of complete set of equipments[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(3):192.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.08.032]
[5]李长俊,马树锋,季楚凌,等.截断阀室水淹后管道沉降的防护技术研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(12):99.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.12.015]
　LI Chang-jun,MA Shu-feng,JI Chu-ling,et al.Study on protection technology of pipeline settlement in flooded block valve station[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(3):99.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.12.015]
[6]范晓勇,淡勇,高勇,等.天然气管道局部等效应力及塑性变形评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(8):135.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.023]
　FAN Xiaoyong,DAN Yong,GAO Yong,et al.Evaluation on local equivalent stress and plastic deformation for natural gas pipeline[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(3):135.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.08.023]
[7]李勐,张宏,王宝栋,等.基于有限元的含腐蚀缺陷P110油管失效分析与安全评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(11):93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.016]
　LI Meng,ZHANG Hong,WANG Baodong,et al.Failure analysis and safety evaluation on P110 oil tube containing corrosion defects based on finite element method[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(3):93.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.016]
[8]刘斐斐,喻源,张庆武.管道中氢气-空气爆轰的多级泄爆数值模拟研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(4):160.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.04.026]
　LIU Feifei,YU Yuan,ZHANG Qingwu.Numerical simulation on multi-level explosion venting for hydrogen-air detonation in pipe[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(3):160.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.04.026]
[9]姚安林,曾跃辉,罗珊,等.基于改进二元语义的滑坡诱发管道失效可能性评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(6):68.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.06.011]
　YAO Anlin,ZENG Yuehui,LUO Shan,et al.Evaluation on failure possibility of pipeline induced by landslide based on improved two-tuple linguistic information[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(3):68.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.06.011]
[10]闫宏伟,马建强,汪洋,等.自锁式管道内封堵装置结构与封堵性能分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(11):27.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.11.005]
　YAN Hongwei,MA Jianqiang,WANG Yang,et al.Analysis on structure and plugging performance of self-locking pipeline in-ner-plugging device[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(3):27.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.11.005]
[11]彭世金,汤海平,丁雅萍,等.管道腐蚀安全评价模型特性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(3):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.03.028]
　PENG Shi-jin,TANG Hai-ping,DING Ya-ping,et al.Study on characteristics of safety assessment model on pipeline corrosion[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(3):172.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.03.028]
[12]肖国清,冯明洋,张华兵,等.含腐蚀缺陷的X80高钢级管道失效评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(6):126.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.06.020]
　XIAO Guo-qing,FENG Ming-yang,ZHANG Hua-bing,et al.Study on failure assessment for X80 high-grade pipeline with corrosion defects[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(3):126.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.06.020]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-08-14
* 基金项目： 国家自然科学基金项目（51904138）；甘肃省自然科学基金项目（20JR5RA451）；甘肃省高等学校创新能力提升项目（2020A-019）
作者简介： 徐鲁帅，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为基于机器学习的管道完整性管理。
通信作者： 凌晓，博士，副教授，主要研究方向为油气储运设备完整性管理。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-04-13