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[1]张认认,杨尚谕,闫相祯,等.储气库注采管柱螺纹失效动态风险评估*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(3):84-90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.013]
　ZHANG Renren,YANG Shangyu,YAN Xiangzhen,et al.Dynamic risk assessment on thread failure of injection-production tubular string in gas storage depot[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(3):84-90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.013]
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储气库注采管柱螺纹失效动态风险评估*()
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年3期
页码:
84-90
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Dynamic risk assessment on thread failure of injection-production tubular string in gas storage depot
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-03-0084-05
作者:
张认认; 杨尚谕; 闫相祯; 张哲; 林敏; 李新宏
（1.西安建筑科技大学 资源工程学院，陕西 西安 710055；
2.中国石油集团石油管工程技术研究院 石油管材及装备材料服役行为与结构安全国家重点实验室，陕西 西安 710077；
3.中国石油大学(华东) CAE技术研究中心，山东 青岛 266580；
4.中国石油新疆油田分公司 呼图壁储气库作业区，新疆 呼图壁 831200）
Author(s):
ZHANG Renren; YANG Shangyu; YAN Xiangzhen; ZHANG Zhe; LIN Min; LI Xinhong
1.School of Resources Engineering,Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology,Xi’an Shaanxi 710055,China;2.State Key Laboratory of Performance and Structural Safety for Petroleum Tubular Goods and Equipment Materials,CNPC Tubular Goods Research Institute,Xi’an Shaanxi 710077,China;3.Oil and Gas CAE Technology Research Center,China University of Petroleum (East China),Qingdao Shandong 266580,China;4.Hutubi Gas Storage Operation Area,CNPC Xinjiang Oilfield Branch,Hutubi Xinjiang 831200,China
关键词:
注采管柱; 螺纹; 蝴蝶结分析法; 贝叶斯网络; 失效风险
Keywords:
injection-production tubular string;  thread;  Bow-tie Analysis;  Bayesian network;  failure risk
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.03.013
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为解决储气库注采管柱螺纹失效问题，识别注采管柱螺纹失效致因与后果，基于蝴蝶结和贝叶斯网络方法构建注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险分析模型，采用模糊集理论计算模型变量先验概率，并评估注采管柱失效后果概率，从而推断注采管柱螺纹失效关键致因因素；引入先兆数据，评估注采管柱螺纹动态失效风险态势。结果表明：气体中携带固体颗粒、上螺纹速度过快、注采温度高、地层断裂等13个因素对螺纹失效风险影响较大；螺纹失效概率逐渐增大，螺纹失效后果也越来越严重，需要监控螺纹失效关键致因以降低螺纹失效的风险。
Abstract:
In order to solve the problem of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string in gas storage depot,the causes and consequences of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string were identified,and a dynamic failure risk analysis model of thread on the injection-production tubular string was constructed based on the Bow-tie and Bayesian network methods.The fuzzy set theory was used to calculate the prior probabilities of model variables,then the failure consequence probability of injection-production tubular string was evaluated,and the key causation factors of thread failure of the injection-production tubular string were inferred.The precursor data were introduced to evaluate the dynamic failure risk situation of thread on the injection-production tubular string.The results showed that a total of 13 factors including the gas bring solid particles, the high velocity for operating thread, high injection-production temperature, ruptured stratum,and the failure probability of thread increased gradually,so the consequence of thread failure became more and more serious.The key causes of thread failure should be monitored to reduce the risk of thread failure.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-06-09
* 基金项目： 陕西省教育厅专项科研计划项目(20JK0729)；石油管材及装备材料服役行为与结构安全国家重点实验室开放基金项目(2020K-5)；陕西省社科界重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2020Z188)
作者简介： 张认认，硕士，助理工程师，主要研究方向为油气套管可靠性评估。
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