|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]孟令晗,张靖岩,杨玲.商业综合体灾害链风险评估研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2020,16(7):43-47.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.007]
　MENG Linghan,ZHANG Jingyan,YANG Ling.Research on risk assessment of disaster chains in commercial complex[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2020,16(7):43-47.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.007]
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商业综合体灾害链风险评估研究
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
16
期数:
2020年7期
页码:
43-47
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2020-07-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on risk assessment of disaster chains in commercial complex
文章编号:
1673-193X(2020)-07-0043-05
作者:
孟令晗; 张靖岩; 杨玲
（1.首都经济贸易大学，北京 100070；
2.中国建筑科学研究院有限公司，北京 100013）
Author(s):
MENG Linghan;  ZHANG Jingyan;  YANG Ling
(1.Capital University of Economics and Business,Beijing 100070,China;
2.China Academy of Building Research,Beijing 100013,China)
关键词:
商业综合体; 脆弱度; 灾害链; 风险评估
Keywords:
commercial complex;  vulnerability;  disaster chain;  risk assessment
分类号:
X928;TU247
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2020.07.007
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了对商业综合体灾害链进行风险研究，基于链式风险评估模型的建模方法，构建商业综合体灾害链风险评估模型，并应用复杂网络结构对商业综合体灾害链的演化过程进行表征，综合灾害事件的致灾率、灾害损失程度、灾害链的脆弱度3个指标得到每条灾害链的风险度量值，最后以泸州摩尔玛商场爆炸事件为实例进行评估，辨识出每条灾害链的风险值。研究结果表明：该模型与实际情况具有较高的吻合性，为商业综合体次生或衍生灾害的防控提供了可靠的理论依据。
Abstract:
In order to carry out the research on the risk of disaster chains in the commercial complex,a model on the risk assessment of disaster chains in the commercial complex constructed by using the modeling method of chain risk assessment model,and the evolution process of disaster chains in the commercial complex were characterized by using the complex network structure.The risk measurement value of each disaster chain with integrating the disaster-causing probability of disaster events,the loss degree of disaster and the vulnerability of disaster chain.Finally,the assessment was conducted by taking the explosion accident of Morma shopping mall in Luzhou City as an example,and the risk value of each disaster chain was identified.The results showed that the model had higher consistency with the actual situation.It provides reliable theoretical basis for the prevention and control of secondary or derivative disasters in the commercial complex.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-02-20
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目（2018YFC0809900）
作者简介： 孟令晗，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为火灾安全及风险评估。
更新日期/Last Update: 2020-08-06