|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]游波,施式亮,刘何清,等.有机过氧化物反应热的危险性预测研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(11):176-181.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.030]
　YOU Bo,SHI Shiliang,LIU Heqing,et al.Research on prediction of thermal hazard characteristics for organic peroxides reaction[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(11):176-181.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.030]
点击复制

有机过氧化物反应热的危险性预测研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年11期
页码:
176-181
栏目:
现代职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2016-11-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Research on prediction of thermal hazard characteristics for organic peroxides reaction
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-11-0176-06
作者:
游波1; 2; 施式亮1; 刘何清1; 2; 常章玉3
（1. 湖南科技大学 资源环境与安全工程学院，湖南 湘潭 411201;2. 煤矿安全开采技术湖南省重点实验室，湖南 湘潭 411201; 3. 中国矿业大学 安全工程学院，江苏 徐州 221116）
Author(s):
YOU Bo1; 2;  SHI Shiliang1;  LIU Heqing1; 2;  CHANG Zhangyu3
(1. School of Resource Environment & Safety Engineering, Hunan University of Science & Technology, Xiangtan Hunan 411201, China; 2. Hunan Key Laboratory of Coal Safety Mining Technology, Xiangtan Hunan 411201, China; 3. School of Safety Engineer
关键词:
有机过氧化物; 热危险性; 多元线性回归; 偏最小二乘法; 支持向量机
Keywords:
organic peroxides;  thermal hazard;  multiple linear regression;  partial least squares;  support vector machine
分类号:
X936
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2016.11.030
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了采用非实验的方法对安全物质学的研究内容及研究方法进行初探，基于定量结构-性质关系法，选择13种与有机过氧化物热危险性的影响因子密切相关的描述符，分别对起始分解温度T0和分解热△H的实验数据进行多元线性回归、偏最小二乘和支持向量机回归分析，从而获得3种相应的预测模型。对比T0与△H的实验值和预测值，结果发现：SVM预测模型的精度高于PLS预测模型，MLR预测模型的精度最低；同种预测模型对分解热的预测结果均优于起始分解温度。此外，分析各预测模型的稳定性数据发现：MLR模型的预测过程发生了过拟合现象，不具备预测能力；PLS模型的交互验证系数均大于0.5，具备较稳定的预测能力；SVM模型的交互验证系数均大于0.9，具备非常稳定的预测能力。
Abstract:
In order to explore the research contents and methods of safety material science by using the non- experimental methods, based on the method of quantitative structure- property relationship, 13 kinds of descriptor being closely related to the influence factors about thermal hazard of organic peroxides were selected. The experimental data of initial decomposition temperature T0 and decomposition heat △H were analyzed by multiple linear regression (MLR), partial least squares (PLS) and support vector machine (SVM) regression, so as to obtain three kinds of corresponding prediction model. The experimental values and prediction values of T0 and △H were compared, and the results showed that the prediction model of SVM had higher accuracy than PLS, and the prediction accuracy of MLR model was the lowest. The prediction results of decomposition heat were better than the results of initial decomposition temperature by the same prediction model. In addition, through a detailed analysis on the stability data of each prediction model, it showed that the over-fitting phenomenon happened in the prediction process of MLR model, without the prediction ability. The cross validation coefficient of PLS model was greater than 0.5, with the stable prediction ability. The cross validation coefficient of SVM model was greater than 0.9, with the very stable prediction ability.

参考文献/References:

［1］刘潜, 张爱军. “安全科学技术”一级学科修订［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2009, 19(11): 5-11. LIU Qian, ZHANG Aijun. Amending of “safety science and technology” as the first grade discipline［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2009, 19(11): 5-11.
[2]石东平, 吴超. 安全物质学的学科体系与研究方法［J］. 中国安全科学学报, 2015, 25(7): 16-22. SHI Dongping, WU Chao. Study on framework of materials safety science and its methodology［J］. China Safety Science Journal, 2015, 25(7): 16-22.
[3]谭波. 有机过氧化物的参数统计分析及安全性研究［D］. 长沙:中南大学, 2012.
[4]孙金华, 丁辉. 化学物质热危险性评价［M］. 北京: 科学出版社, 2005.
[5]Fang L, Huang J, Yu G, et al. Quantitative structure-property relationship studies for direct photolysis rate constants and quantum yields of polybrominated diphenyl ethers in hexane and methanol.［J］. Ecotoxicology and Environmental Safety, 2009, 72(5): 1587-1593.
[6]彭金华, 长谷川和俊. 有机过氧化物安定性的差示扫描量热测定［J］. 分析化学, 1999, 27(9): 11-16. PENG Jinhua, K Hasegawa. Different scanning calorimetry determination of organic peroxide stability［J］. Chinese Journal of Analytical Chemistry, 1999, 27(9): 11-16.
[7]徐宝成, 朱大为, 姜文德. 有机过氧化物的危险性因素探讨及防范措施［J］. 炼油与化工, 2005, 16(4): 50-51. XU Baocheng, ZHU Dawei, JIANG Wende. Discussion of risk factors and preventive measures of organic peroxide［J］. Refining and Chemical Industry, 2005, 16(4): 50-51.
[8]张青松, 刘茂, 师立晨. 有机过氧化物生产火灾爆炸危险性分析［J］. 安全与环境学报, 2004, 4(3): 33-38. ZHANG Qingsong, LIU Mao, SHI Licheng. Hazard analysis of fire and explosion in manufacturing organic peroxides［J］. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2004, 4(3): 33-38.
[9]Lu Y, Ng D, Mannan M S. Prediction of the reactivity hazards for organic peroxides using the QSPR approach［J］. Industrial & Engineering Chemistry, 2011, 50(3): 1515-1522.
[10]艾佑宏, 吴慧敏. 有机过氧化物性质和安全性评价［J］. 工业安全与环保, 2006, 32(3): 48-51. AI Youhong, WU Huimin. Characteristics of organic peroxide and safety assessment on it［J］. Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection, 2006, 32(3): 48-51.
[11]Schuurman P. Safety of organic peroxides［J］. Process in Safety Science and Technology,2002, 9(3):221-231.
[12]Lu Y, Ng D, Miao L, et al. Key observations of cumene hydroperoxide concentration on runaway reaction parameters［J］. Thermochimica Acta, 2010, 50(2): 65-71.
[13]Iwata Y, Momota M, Koseki H. Thermal risk evaluation of organic peroxide by automatic pressure tracking adiabatic calorimeter［J］. Journal of Thermal Analysis and Calorimetry, 2006, 85(3): 617-622.

相似文献/References:

[1]李丽霞,周奕杉,章〓晔,等.一种化学物质的热危险性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(10):18.
　LI Li xia,ZHOU Yi shan,ZHANG Ye,et al.Study on thermal risk of a chemical[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(11):18.
[2]宋军,邓秀琼,纪红兵.有机过氧化物在生产、储运过程中的危险与可操作性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(1):156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.01.026]
　SONG Jun,DENG Xiu-qiong,JI Hong-bing.Hazard and operability analysis of organic peroxide during the process of manufacture, transportation and storage[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(11):156.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.01.026]
[3]朱红伟,姜杰,孙冰,等.氯丙烯直接环氧化工艺反应物料危险性研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2018,14(1):173.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.01.028]
　ZHU Hongwei,JIANG Jie,SUN Bing,et al.Study on hazard of reaction materials in direct epoxidation process of chloropropene[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2018,14(11):173.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2018.01.028]
[4]张金锋,张睛,任红威,等.过氧化苯甲酸叔丁酯热危险性实验研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(9):39.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.006]
　ZHANG Jinfeng,ZHANG Jing,REN Hongwei,et al.Experimental study on thermal hazard of tertbutyl peroxybenzoate[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(11):39.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.09.006]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目（51274100，51474105）；湖南省教育厅科研一般项目（15C0553）
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-01-04