|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]王永明.事故灾难类重大突发事件情景构建概念模型[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2016,12(2):5-8.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2016.02.001]
　WANG Yongming.Conceptual model on scenario construction for major accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2016,12(2):5-8.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2016.02.001]
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事故灾难类重大突发事件情景构建概念模型
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
12
期数:
2016年2期
页码:
5-8
栏目:
学术论著
出版日期:
2016-02-29

文章信息/Info

Title:
Conceptual model on scenario construction for major accidents
文章编号:
1673-193X(2016)-02-0005-04
作者:
王永明
国家行政学院 应急管理教研部，北京 100089
Author(s):
WANG Yongming
National Institute of Emergency Management, Chinese Academy of Governance, Beijing 100089, China
关键词:
事故灾难; 应急准备; 情景构建; 机会窗; 概念模型
Keywords:
accident disaster;  emergency preparedness;  scenario construction;  window of opportunity;  conceptual model
分类号:
X928.03
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2016.02.001
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
近期重特大事故灾难频发，表现出我国安全管理水平和应急处置能力依然不足。为引导地区或企业有序地开展应急准备工作，设计了事故灾难类重大突发事件情景构建概念模型，分析了概念模型中的“机会窗”和“准备效益”等重要理念，总结了概念模型在我国当前阶段的重要指导意义。最后，以某化工园区为真实背景，开展了生产安全事故情景构建的原型研究，证明了在事故灾难领域开展情景构建的实际价值。
Abstract:
Recently, major accidents occur frequently, which shows that the safety management level and emergency response capacity are still insufficient. In order to guide the local government or enterprises to carry out the emergency preparedness orderly, a conceptual model on scenario construction for major accidents was designed, and some important ideas such as the "window of opportunity" and "benefits of preparedness" were analyzed. The important guiding significance of this conceptual model in current period of China was summarized. Finally, taking a certain chemical industry park as actual background, the prototype research on scenario construction for work safety accidents was conducted, which proved the practical value of performing scenario construction in accident disaster field.

参考文献/References:

［1］U.S. National Security Council, National Strategy for Homeland Security［R］. The U.S. Washington, DC, USA, 2002.
［2］U.S. Department of Homeland Security，National Planning Scenarios［R］. The U.S. Washington, DC, USA, 2006.
［3］Germany Federal Office of Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance, LüKEX General Information［R］.Berlin, Germany, 2013.
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［5］李湖生,刘铁民. 突发事件应急准备体系研究进展及关键科学问题［J］. 中国安全生产科学技术, 2009,5(6):5-10. LI Husheng，LIU Tiemin. The research progresses and key scientific problems on emergency preparedness system［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2009,5(6):5-10.
［6］王永明.重大突发事件情景构建理论框架与技术路线［J］.中国应急管理，2015（8）：53-57. WANG Yongming. The frame and technical flowchart of the theory on scenario building of major emergencies［J］.China Emergency Management，2015（8）：53-57.
［7］刘铁民.应急预案重大突发事件情景构建——基于“情景-任务-能力”应急预案编制技术研究之一［J］.中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(4):5-12. LIU Tiemin. Studies on scenes’ construction of emergency planning——Part II of emergency planning technology based on“Scene-Task-Ability” ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2012,8(4):5-12.
［8］刘铁民.应急准备任务设置与应急响应能力建设——基于“情景-任务-能力”应急预案编制技术研究之二［J］.中国安全生产科学技术, 2012,8(10):5-13. LIU Tiemin. Studies on setting of emergency preparedness task and building of emergency response capacity ——Part II of emergency planning technology based on“Scene-Task-Ability” ［J］. Journal of Safety Science and Technology，2012,8(10): 5-13.
［9］刘铁民.重大事故灾难情景构建理论与方法［J］.复旦公共行政评论，2013(2):46-59. LIU Tiemin. The theory and method of major accidents’ scenario construction［J］. Fudan Public Administration Review，2013(2):46-59.
［10］国家安全生产监督管理总局，山东省青岛市“11·22”中石化东黄输油管道泄漏爆炸特别重大事故调查报告［EB/OL］，http://www.chinasafety.gov.cn/new page/ Contents/Channel_5498/2014/0110/229142/content_229142.htm

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
国家自然科学基金项目（91024031；71103162；91324020）；国家社科基金（14BGL136）；国家科技支撑计划课题（2015BAK12B01）；中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研业务费专项资金项目（2015JBKY02）
更新日期/Last Update: 2016-03-11