|本期目录/Table of Contents|

[1]李求进,杨玉胜,陶红,等.基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2012,8(1):71.
　LI Qiu-jin,YANG Yu-sheng,TAO Hong.Study on quantitative risk assessment method based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2012,8(1):71.
点击复制

基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价研究
分享到：

《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
8
期数:
2012年1期
页码:
71
栏目:
出版日期:
2012-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Study on quantitative risk assessment method based on domino effect
作者:
李求进； 杨玉胜； 陶红；
上海市安全生产科学研究所； 中国人民武装警察部队学院；
Author(s):
LI Qiu-jin1; YANG Yu-sheng2; TAO Hong1
1.Shanghai Institute of Work Safety Science,Shanghai 200233,China)(2.Chinese People’s Armed Police Forces Academy,Langfang 065000,China
关键词:
多米诺效应;  定量风险评价;  阈值距离;  事故情景
Keywords:
domino effect;  quantitative risk assessment;  threshold distance;  accident scenarios
分类号:
TQ086
DOI:
-
文献标志码:
-
摘要:
多米诺效应是引发化工重大事故的主要原因之一。本文综合国内外的研究成果,对火灾热辐射、冲击波超压等造成的多米诺效应进行了深入分析,建立基于多米诺效应的定量风险评价模型,其中包括了评价流程、传播概率、阈值距离计算、多米诺效应对事故频率的影响及后果分析的内容。最后利用Matlab7.1计算平台,以汽油储罐进行实例分析,结果表明该方法是一种适用于多米诺效应定量评价的良好方法,能够比较科学、有效的对危险单元进行风险评价,使重大事故风险评价更切合实际,为政府监管部门和化工企业进行事故的控制和预防提供决策技术。
Abstract:
In the context of risk assessment and loss prevention in chemical process industries,the term domino effect denotes ’chain of accidents’,or situations when a fire/explosion/missile/toxic load generated by an accident in one unit in an industry causes secondary and higher order accidents in other units.Domino effect is a major cause of severe accidents in chemical industry.Combining with achievements in domino effect,the quantitative risk assessment model based on domino effect was presented,which included assessment process,transmission probability,threshold distance calculation,accident frequency with domino effect and consequence analysis.As a case study,a domino effect evaluation of gasoline tanks was presented.The results showed that the method was suitable for quantitative risk assessment of domino effect,which can give better results of risk assessment,and support the decision of government and enterprises for accident control and prevention.

参考文献/References:

-

相似文献/References:

[1]于清华.多米诺效应阈值研究进展[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2011,7(10):212.
　YU Qing-hua.Research progress on domino effect threshold[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2011,7(1):212.
[2]杨一楠,张青松,纪欢乐.油库池火灾多米诺效应风险管理研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(2):84.
　YANG Yi nan,ZHANG Qing song,JI Huan le.Study on risk management of domino effect by pool fire of fuel tank district[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):84.
[3]冯显富,王艳,张科宇,等.火灾爆炸事故多米诺效应耦合模型研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(3):51.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.09]
　FENG Xian fu,WANG Yan,ZHANG Ke yu,et al.Study on coupled model of domino effect in fire and explosion accident[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):51.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.03.09]
[4]高进东.化工储罐区池火灾多米诺效应风险评估[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2013,9(7):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.009]
　GAO Jin dong.Risk assessment on domino effect caused by pool fire in chemical tanks[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2013,9(1):54.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2013.07.009]
[5]黄亮亮,姚安林,魏沁汝,等.基于RBI与多米诺效应的输气站场设备定量风险评价[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(5):90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.015]
　HUANG Liangliang,YAO Anlin,WEI Qingru,et al.Quantitative risk assessment of facilities in gas transmission station based on RBI and domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(1):90.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.05.015]
[6]王海龙,包其富,李学盛,等.基于多米诺效应的油品储罐区个人风险研究*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2009,5(5):55.
　WANG Hai long,BAO Qi fu,LI Xue sheng,et al.Research on individual risk of tank area based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2009,5(1):55.
[7]魏沁汝,姚安林.基于多米诺效应的输油管道重大事故后果分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2014,10(11):168.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.029]
　WEI Qin-ru,YAO An-lin.Analysis on consequences of major accidents in oil pipeline based on domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2014,10(1):168.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2014.11.029]
[8]陈国华,安霆,陈培珠.危险化学品事故多米诺效应历史数据研究评述[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(4):64.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.010]
　CHEN Guo-hua,AN Ting,CHEN Pei-zhu.Review on historical analysis of domino effect in chemical accidents[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(1):64.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193X.2015.04.010]
[9]刘培,宋文华,张炳锋,等.米诺效应中的多事故点协同作用后果研究[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2015,11(11):131.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
　LIU Pei,SONG Wen-hua,ZHANG Bing-feng,et al.Study on consequence by synergistic action of multiple accident points in domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2015,11(1):131.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2015.11.022]
[10]衣健民,田宏.多米诺效应下化工储罐区的脆弱性分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2017,13(10):181.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.030]
　YI Jianmin,TIAN Hong.Vulnerability analysis on chemical storage tank area under domino effect[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2017,13(1):181.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2017.10.030]

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
上海市科委2010年度“科技创新行动计划”(编号:10231203000)
更新日期/Last Update: 2012-03-23