基于Matlab的火灾探测报警系统可靠度Monte Carlo仿真-《中国安全生产科学技术》

文章信息/Info

Title:: Simulation on the reliability of fire detection alarming system with Monte Carlo method based on Matlab

Author(s):: XING Zhi-xiang¹; CHEN Lu¹; ZHU De-zhi²; 1.Institute of Environmental & Safety Engineering Changzhou University,Changzhou 213164,China)(2.Nanjing Municipal Public Security Bureau of Fire Protection,Nanjing 210008,China

Keywords:: fire detection alarming system; Matlab; Monte Carlo; reliability; service life

摘要:: 介绍了火灾探测报警系统的结构,指出了火灾探测报警系统失效原因,针对火灾探测报警系统的特点,确定了蒙特卡洛可靠度分析法。给出了系统的概率模型,确定了在Matlab下应用Monte Carlo方法对火灾探测报警系统的可靠度进行仿真的具体步骤,得到火灾探测报警系统可靠度仿真曲线。将仿真结果与试验结果相比较,基本一致,验证了该仿真方法能正确描述火灾探测报警系统的可靠度随使用寿命的变化规律,为进一步应用该方法来分析火灾探测报警系统的的各可靠性指标提供了理论基础。

Abstract:: The structure of fire detection alarming system was introduced,and the failure reasons of the fire detection alarming system were pointed out from four aspects.According to the characteristics of long test time and collectting data difficult of the fire detection alarming system,Monte Carlo reliability analysis method was determined.The system probability model of the fire detection alarming was given,and the steps of the simulation on the reliability of the fire detection alarming system with Monte Carlo method based on Matlab were setted.Then the reliability simulation curve of the fire detection alarming system was achieved.Comparing the reliability simulaition curve with the experimental reliability curve,the simulaition result of the fire detection alarming system was well matched with the experimental result.Therefore,the simulation method of simulatting the reliability of the fire detection alarming system with Monte Carlo method based on Matlab could correctly descried the change rule of the fire detection alarming system reliability with the service life.The method provided a theoretical basis for the further application of the method to the analysis of all the reliability evaluation index of the fire detection alarming system.According to the change rule of each index,the working situation of the system can be forecasted in the following period.It is of great significance for improving the fire detection alarming system reliability.