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[1]岳宝强,孙世军,杨立超,等.基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2021,17(1):155-161.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.01.025]
　YUE Baoqiang,SUN Shijun,YANG Lichao,et al.Risk assessment model of electricity system in hazardous chemicals explosion accident based on Bayesian network[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2021,17(1):155-161.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.01.025]
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基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
17
期数:
2021年1期
页码:
155-161
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2021-01-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk assessment model of electricity system in hazardous chemicals explosion accident based on Bayesian network
文章编号:
1673-193X(2021)-01-0155-07
作者:
岳宝强; 孙世军; 杨立超; 朱坤双; 李元宝; 韩洪; 王贤宗; 徐凤娇; 王皖; 周倩; 秦挺鑫; 张超
（1.国网山东省电力公司临沂供电公司，山东 临沂 276000;
2.国网山东省电力公司应急管理中心，山东 济南 250001;
3.中国标准化研究院，北京 100191）
Author(s):
YUE Baoqiang;  SUN Shijun;  YANG Lichao;  ZHU Kunshuang;  LI Yuanbao;  HAN Hong;  WANG Xianzong;  XU Fengjiao;  WANG Wan;  ZHOU Qian;  QIN Tingxin;  ZHANG Chao
(1.State Grid Linyi Power Supply Company,Linyi Shandong 276000,China;
2.State Grid Shandong Electric Power Company Emergency Management Center,Jinan Shandong 250001,China;
3.China National Institute of Standardization,Beijing 100191,China)
关键词:
贝叶斯网络; 危化品爆炸事故; 电力系统; 风险评估
Keywords:
Bayesian network;  hazardous chemicals explosion accident;  electricity system;  risk assessment
分类号:
X913.4
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2021.01.025
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为提高危化品爆炸事故电力应急预警的准确性，建立基于贝叶斯网络的危化品爆炸事故电力系统风险评估模型。基于危化品爆炸事故电力应急典型情景分析，建立综合考虑突发事件、承灾载体和应急管理等风险因素的贝叶斯网络结构。应用概率刻画风险因素信息的不确定性及其相互影响，定量分析事件后果。结合一般条件和典型情景等的应用实例，分析评价方法和风险因素对风险等级的影响。结果表明：该模型能够在危化品爆炸事故发生后，评价电力应急预警等级；能够在危化品爆炸事故发生前，分析典型情景的风险和风险因素的影响，为应急准备提供支持；“最大概率法”较“概率加权求和法”得出的事件等级可能较低。
Abstract:
In order to improve the accuracy of electricity system’s emergency prewarning for the hazardous chemicals accident,a risk assessment model of electricity system in the hazardous chemicals accident based on Bayesian network was established.Based on the analysis of typical power emergency scenarios in the hazardous chemicals accident,a Bayesian network structure comprehensively considering the emergency events,disaster carriers,emergency management and other risk factors was established.The probability was used to characterize the uncertainty of risk factors’ information and their mutual influence,and the consequence of events were analyzed quantitatively.Combined with the application examples of general conditions and typical scenarios,the influence of assessment methods and risk factors on the risk grades was analyzed.The results showed that the model can assess the prewarning level after an event occurs,and provide support for the earlywarning.It can also analyze the risk of typical scenarios and the influence of risk factors before the event occurs,and provide support for the emergency preparedness.The event grade obtained by the “maximum probability method” maybe lower than that by the “probabilityweighted summation method”.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2020-11-22
* 基金项目： 国网山东省电力公司科技项目（52060719011J）
作者简介： 岳宝强，本科，高级工程师，主要研究方向为电力系统分析及应急。
通信作者： 张超，博士，副研究员，主要研究方向为公共安全标准化。
更新日期/Last Update: 2021-02-04