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[1]朱红卫,智晨潇,李新宏,等.基于JSA-BN的水上提管维修作业风险分析[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2019,15(3):98-103.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.016]
　ZHU Hongwei,ZHI Chenxiao,LI Xinhong,et al.Risk analysis on operation of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance based on JSA-BN[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2019,15(3):98-103.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.016]
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基于JSA-BN的水上提管维修作业风险分析
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
15
期数:
2019年3期
页码:
98-103
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2019-03-31

文章信息/Info

Title:
Risk analysis on operation of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance based on JSA-BN
文章编号:
1673-193X(2019)-03-0098-06
作者:
朱红卫; 智晨潇; 李新宏; 陈国明
（中国石油大学（华东） 海洋油气装备与安全技术研究中心，山东 青岛 266580）
Author(s):
ZHU Hongwei; ZHI Chenxiao; LI Xinhong; CHEN Guoming
(Centre for Offshore Engineering and Safety Technology, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao Shandong 266580, China)
关键词:
海底管道; 水上提管维修; JSA; 贝叶斯网络
Keywords:
subsea pipeline;  abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance;  job safety analysis (JSA);  Bayesian network (BN)
分类号:
X937
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2019.03.016
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为保障海底油气管道维修作业安全，提出1种基于JSA-BN的作业风险分析方法。采用JSA方法辨识分析水上提管维修作业过程中潜在的风险因素，得出不同作业步骤的风险等级；建立水上提管维修作业贝叶斯网络模型，计算出各作业环节的成功概率；依托贝叶斯网络的逆向推理及敏感性分析能力，实现水上提管维修作业风险薄弱点的定量预测和评估。研究结果表明：提出的基于JSA-BN的作业风险分析方法可应用于近岸海底管道应急维修作业风险分析；在整个水上提管维修作业活动中，提管作业和切割破损管道作业为关键作业环节，提升过程中碰撞、掉落事件为薄弱风险因素。
Abstract:
In order to ensure the safety of maintenance operation for the subsea oil and gas pipeline, an analysis method of operation risk based on JSA-BN was put forward. The potential risk factors in the operation process of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance were identified and analyzed by using the job safety analysis (JSA) method, and the risk grades of different operation steps were obtained. A Bayesian network (BN) model on the operation of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance was established, and the success probability of each operation link was calculated. The quantitative prediction and assessment of weak points in the operation risk of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance were achieved relying on the reverse reasoning and sensitivity analysis capabilities of BN. The results showed that in the whole operation activity of abovewater lifting pipeline maintenance, the operation of lifting pipeline and the operation of cutting damaged pipeline were the key operation links, and the events of collision and falling during the lifting process were the weak risk factors.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:

收稿日期： 2018-10-23
基金项目： 国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0802305)
作者简介： 朱红卫，硕士，讲师，主要研究方向为海底管道安全可靠性评估技术。
通信作者： 陈国明，博士，教授，主要研究方向为海洋油气工程及装备、油气安全工程方面研究。
更新日期/Last Update: 2019-04-15