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[1]贺明晓,刘阳,唐怡,等.考虑频率因子的VMD-GRA-BP库区滑坡位移预测模型*[J].中国安全生产科学技术,2024,20(9):96-104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.09.011]
　HE Mingxiao,LIU Yang,TANG Yi,et al.Prediction model of landslide displacement in reservoir area based on VMD-GRA-BP considering frequency factor[J].JOURNAL OF SAFETY SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY,2024,20(9):96-104.[doi:10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.09.011]
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考虑频率因子的VMD-GRA-BP库区滑坡位移预测模型*
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《中国安全生产科学技术》[ISSN:1673-193X/CN:11-5335/TB]

卷:
20
期数:
2024年9期
页码:
96-104
栏目:
职业安全卫生管理与技术
出版日期:
2024-09-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Prediction model of landslide displacement in reservoir area based on VMD-GRA-BP considering frequency factor
文章编号:
1673-193X(2024)-09-0096-09
作者:
贺明晓; 刘阳; 唐怡; 杨辉宗; 吴卓恩; 张建经; 罗宏森
（1.四川师范大学 工学院，四川 成都 610101；
2.四川师范大学 公共安全与应急研究院，四川 成都 610066；
3.西南交通大学 土木工程学院，四川 成都 610031）
Author(s):
HE Mingxiao;  LIU Yang;  TANG Yi;  YANG Huizong;  WU Zhuoen;  ZHANG Jianjing;  LUO Hongsen
(1.Institute of Technology,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu Sichuan 610101,China;
2.Institute of Public Safety and Emergency Response,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu Sichuan 610066,China;
3.School of Civil Engineering,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China)
关键词:
库区滑坡; 频率因子（FF）; VMD-GRA-BP模型; 位移预测
Keywords:
reservoir area landslide;  frequency factor (FF);  VMD-GRA-BP model;  displacement prediction
分类号:
X936
DOI:
10.11731/j.issn.1673-193x.2024.09.011
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
为了减少库区滑坡失稳可能带来的损失，确保水电工程的安全稳定运行及保障周边民众的生命财产安全，探讨提升库区滑坡位移预测精度的方法。提出结合频率因子（frequency factor，FF）和变分模态分解-灰色关联度分析-误差反向传播神经网络（variational mode decomposition-grey relational analysis-back propagation neural network，VMD-GRA-BP）模型的库区滑坡位移预测方法，并应用于三峡库区滑坡。研究结果表明：FF对周期位移分量的预测效果有一定的提升，VMD-GRA-BP模型能够简化复杂非线性库区滑坡位移预测问题，BP模型预测性能优异，预测精度多高于支持向量机（support vector machine，SVM）和k最近邻（k-nearest neighbor，KNN）模型。研究结果可为库区滑坡位移预测和预警提供参考。
Abstract:
In order to reduce the possible losses caused by landslide instability in the reservoir area and ensure the safety of hydropower projects and people,the method of improving the prediction accuracy of landslide displacement in the reservoir area is discussed.A landslide displacement prediction method combining frequency factor (FF) and variational mode decomposition-grey relational analysis-back propagation neural network (VMD-GRA-BP) model is proposed and applied to landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area.The results show that FF has a certain improvement on the prediction effect of periodic displacement component.The VMD-GRA-BP model can simplify the prediction of landslide displacement in complex nonlinear reservoir area.The BP model has high prediction performance,and the prediction accuracy is mostly higher than those of support vector machine (SVM) and k-nearest neighbor (KNN) models.The research results can provide reference for the landslide displacement prediction and early-warning in the reservoir areas.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期： 2024-03-27
* 基金项目： 国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0504901)；四川省科技计划项目(2023NSFSC1038)；四川省大学生创新训练计划项目(S202410636063)；四川师范大学教改项目（20210471XKC）
作者简介： 贺明晓，硕士研究生，主要研究方向为滑坡位移预测。
通信作者： 刘阳，博士，讲师，主要研究方向为岩土工程防灾减灾、地质灾害风险分析及预警。
更新日期/Last Update: 2024-10-08